Date: September 4th, 2020
Yesterday was a mixed day for the Ag commodities. Cattle futures continue to slide lower as lean hog futures gapped higher. Beef export sales were in line expectations while pork sales were bullish. Beef prices continue to slide lower as pork values shot higher yesterday. Cash feedlot trade continues this week to creep lower with reports out of TX down to $102 live and dressed trade in the North down to $162. Feeders continue to take the biggest hit since peaking in early August. Technically its looking bearish now and the fundamentals are not as support either.
Farmers and Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. – Salina, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/3/2020
Total Receipts: 1,615 Last Week: 2,573 Last Year: 1,887
Compared to last week: Lighter test today. Steers 800-1050 lbs 3.00-7.00 lower; 800 lbs and under lower undertone noted with instances of 2.00-5.00 lower. Heifers 450-950 lbs 2.00-3.00 lower with instances of 8.00 lower.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/3/2020
Total Receipts: 2,276 Last Week: 2,498 Last Year: 1,147
Compared to last week. feeder steers 700 lb to 900 lb sold steady to 1.00 higher. Feeder heifers 700 lb to 900 lb sold steady on light receipts. Feeder steers and heifers under 700 lb sold 3.00 to 6.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 117,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and matching a year ago. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 480,000 head, down 2,000 from a week ago and down 8,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values sliding lower with 148 loads sold on Thursday.
Choice Cutout__227.24 -.34
Select Cutout__212.50 -1.32
CME Feeder Index__139.68 -.67
CME Lean Hog Index__57.51 +.71
Pork Carcass Cutout__80.19 +6.68
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__46.32 +1.52
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__46.31 +2.09
October live cattle breaking the long-term higher trend last week and nearby support with the next down at $103 then $102.65 and resistance levels at $107, $109 and $111. September feeders now down $12 since peaking in early August with support tested yesterday at $137, the next down at $131.50 and resistance at $141 then up around $149. October lean hogs again gapping higher yesterday and into a new 4-month high with resistance next at $60 then $61 and support around $54.
Grains were mixed yesterday with corn and wheat lower while soybeans held gains. Weekly export sales were impressive again for the fall crops as the next report will roll unshipped old crop into new as the marketing year began on September 1st. The US$ remains weak yet has been on a uptick the past few days limiting or not supporting grain rallies.
All grains trading steady to higher overnight with corn finishing 2 to 5 higher, soybeans and wheat steady to 2 higher with soybean into another new recent high.
Stats Canada out this morning with a stocks report a surprisingly lower wheat stocks. USDA monthly crop report is out next week with little to no change expected for US production while world production could see some increases in both Russian and Canada. Corn and soybean production estimates will be the most important data as USDA takes into consideration the massive windstorm from early August and the continued dry conditions for major growing areas last month as well.
USDA announced private sales of 318,000 MT or 11.7 MBU of soybeans sold to China and 175,000 MT of soybean meal sold to the Philippines this morning.
Weather over this next week is back and forth with warm temps over the holiday weekend with a cold front coming in early next week bring with it a possibility of snow and freezing temps in the Northern Plains and Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal temps across the Plains and Midwest and above normal on both coasts with above normal moisture for the eastern third of the U.S. and below normal for the western 2/3.
December corn hitting a new 5-month high on Monday at $3.64 ¼ but unable to push back through the $3.60 area since with support at $3.53. November soybeans again into a new 7-month high with resistance at $9.70 and support around $9.40. December KC wheat hitting a new 3-month high earlier this week with resistance from $4.90 to $4.95 and support around $4.70. December Chicago wheat also spiking higher early this week with resistance from $5.70 to $5.75 and support at $5.25.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700