Date: April 24th, 2019
Livestock futures were mixed yesterday while wheat bounced off new contract lows to finish higher but corn and soybeans remained under pressure. Lean hog futures continue to bounce around with additional outbreaks of African swine fever in China even though they stated it was under control recently. Cattle bids started to surface at $130 live but no activity yet. The Fed Cattle Exchange online exchange later this morning with 461 head consigned compared to last week’s 1,578 head consigned of which 1,269 head from Nebraska sold for delivery 1-17 days out at $127.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 04/22/2019
Receipts: 7,715 Last Week: 5,697 Year Ago: 4,952
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady to 4.00 higher. 500-600 lb. steer calves 1.00-2.00 lower, lightweights lightly tested with a much higher undertone noted. Heifer calves steady to 4.00 higher. Thin fleshed calves headed to grass sharply higher on limited sales.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 04/22/2019
Receipts: 5,243 Last Week: 5,158 Year Ago: 6,690
Compared to last week, feeders sold steady to 3.00 higher, except heifers under 550 lbs sold steady to 2.00 lower. The supply was nearly a total flip from last week with the majority of the cattle steers and a much larger percent over over 600 lbs. including several large strings. Demand was good. The supply was moderate with many of the cattle carrying very little flesh and suitable for grazing.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 04/23/2019
Receipts: 1801 Last Week: 2461 Year Ago: 1733
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder Steers in a light test under 550 lbs steady, over 550 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 higher. Feeder Heifers under 600 lbs in a light test 2.00 to 3.00 higher, 600 to 700 lbs steady to 1.00 higher, over 700 lbs steady. Slaughter cows and bulls 3.00 higher. Demand good for feeders to very good for cow-calf pairs.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 2,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 475,000 head, also up 1,000 compared to last week and up 9,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values weak to lower on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 116 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__234.11 -.37
Select Cutout__221.26 -1.38
CME Feeder Index__145.84 -13
CME Lean Hog Index__82.07 +.53
Pork Carcass Cutout__88.92 +1.06
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__62.70 +.95, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__82.01 +.50
National Wtd Avg Live Price__62.46 +1.99, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__80.02 -.19
April live cattle expire next week, volume getting thin, but still showing a sharp recovery higher theses past couple weeks. The June contract with a very steady higher trend for almost a year now. The contract high is at $124.90, first area of resistance just shy of $123 with support at $120 then $118.70. May feeders still holding a higher trend with support at $148.50, resistance up near $152 with the contract high at $155.30. August into a new contract high last week at $161.40 with support near $158 then $154. May lean hogs now the front month but only trading a fraction of the volume compared to the June contract. May has a contract high at $93.25 while the June contract high is up at $99.82 and resistance next up near the $110 area back from 2014. There is still a small gap down to $91.50 with support next around $86.
Over in the grains, wheat futures hit new contract lows again, but were able to recover and finish higher. Soybeans reached down for new recent lows searching for demand as the trade deal with China continues to drag on. Soybeans from South America continue to be priced at a discount to U.S. with $2/MT cheaper from Brazil and $20+/MT cheaper from Argentina. Argentina so cheap due to low protein levels being reported. China booked 23 cargoes of soybeans from South America the first couple weeks of April, expecting to see 8.5+ MMT shipped in April, and 6 to 7 MMT in May and June.
Corn hit new contract lows yesterday, both nearby and new crop, but did stop there and held a few lower throughout the trading day. Corn plantings at 6% are behind the average pace of 15% but so far tracking with last year. This along with an open forecast for most of this week, gives little concern to the record short funds position estimated now at 360K contracts or 1.8 BBU. Last year’s planting pace was also behind the 5-year average with 5% in the ground at this time, 17% by April 30th. We advanced around 20% each week until catching up to the average pace by May 21st at 81% planted.
Overnight, grains were mixed, corn finished steady, soybeans 1 higher and wheat 3 to 5 lower.
Stats Canada released their 2019 Acreage Estimates this morning with lower than expected oilseeds but higher than expected wheat acres. Canola acres estimated at 21.3 million acres with expectations for 21.8 and last year’s 22.8 million. Soybean acres projected at 5.65 million compared to expectations of 6.4 and last year’s 6.32 million. All wheat acres though at 25.67 million, up from last year’s 24.7 and expectations at 24.8 million. Spring wheat acres projected 12% higher than a year ago at 19.4 million, Durum wheat down to 5.0 million and winter wheat the same at 1.2 million. Barley acres up slightly to 7.15 million with all others in line with expectations, corn 3.8 million and oats 3.3 million.
No daily export sales announcement so far this week. Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Ethiopia all tendering for wheat.
Heavy rains in the forecast for next week in the Southeast and from NE KS up to the Great Lakes. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal temps for most with below normal for the Northern Border States and normal to above normal precipitation for most with below normal in the Southeast.
May corn new contact low yesterday at $3.50 ¼ with the next area of support down near $3.30 (the nearby lows from 2017 & 2018), resistance up near $3.65 then $3.80. May soybeans into a new 7-month low at $8.60 ¾, the contract low down at $8.53, with resistance up at $9.12. May KC wheat with a new contract low overnight at $4.06 ½, resistance up at $4.35. May Chicago wheat with resistance up at $4.65, and the contract low at $4.27 back in March. May soybean meal testing the support around the $300 level with the next down at $292 and resistance up near $312.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700