Date: April 15th, 2019
KS and TX cash feedlot trade was steady this past week at $124 live. Trade in the North also steady at $127 to $128 live and $203 to $204 on a dressed basis. Lean hogs were sharply lower early in the week but came back to end the week supported by another round of high volume pork sales to China.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 04/12/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 190,400 53,800 72,800 317,000
This Week 233,200 92,000 2,000 327,200
Year Ago 205,400 53,300 18,600 277,300
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold uneven; 2.00 lower to 2.00 higher. New crop fall calves have been noticed at auctions this week with many unweaned comments used. Feeder calves and stocker calves under 800 lbs, especially those carrying a minimal amount of flesh showed the way with the best demand. Buyers continue to shy away from cattle carrying too much flesh condition for their weight. After the second winter in a row that just doesn’t seem to end, farmers and ranchers in the Midwest and Plains are ready for warmer weather so they can get some much-needed field work done. Forage supplies are bound to be depleted in many areas after the amount of forage that has been fed in the last two winters. Grass is slow to come even though temperatures were higher the first of this week, however freeze and frost warnings in the Plains this week brings us back to reality. Less open cows will be retained after this winter’s calving season and cow prices have been higher at auctions this week after trending lower for a couple weeks. It appears that many distressed cows from the first “bomb cyclone” have made their way to market. There is bound to be more weight loss of nearly finished cattle throughout the Northern Plains and just how much lost will be evident in the coming months as calf-feds get closer to harvest. Currently, cattle are not meeting their projected out-weights and cost of gains are higher than anticipated just a few short months ago.
For the week, Friday April 5th to Friday April 12th, April Live Cattle +$.50, June +$1.10, April Feeder Cattle -$.72 August +$1.97, April Lean Hogs +$.27, June -$.47. Boxed Beef, Choice +$1.82 @ $228.75, Select +$.74 @ $221.02.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 118,000 head, up 11,000 from the previous week and up 2,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 634,000 head, up 13,000 from the week previous and up 23,000 from a year ago. Beef production estimated at 507.4 million pounds last week compared to 497.2 the week previous and 493.6 last year. Year to date slaughter up .9% from last year but beef production down .7%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 435,000 head, up 18,000 from the week previous but down 22,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,384,000 head, down 74,000 from the week previous but up 12,000 from a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 510.7 million pounds compared to 526.5 the week previous and 508.4 last year. Year to date slaughter running 2.7% ahead of a year ago and pork production up 2.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on Choice and higher on Select on moderate to fairly good demand and heavy offerings for a total of 120 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__228.73 -.08, +1.82 for the week
Select Cutout__221.02 +1.07, +.74 for the week
CME Feeder Index__142.78 -.57
CME Lean Hog Index__79.34 -.02
Pork Carcass Cutout__85.71 +1.28
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__58.87 -.38, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__76.98 no comp
National Wtd Avg Live Price__57.08 -1.09, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__76.37 +1.81
April live cattle on a lower trend since hitting a new contract high at $130.45 back on March 21st. The next support is down near $124.70 then $123.50. April feeders still trying to hold a higher trend with support at $145.00 and resistance up near $151. August on a higher trend with resistance up at $159.82 and support near $154. May lean hogs now the front month but only trading a tenth of the volume compared to the June contract. May has a contract high at $93.25 while the June contract high is up at $99.82 with resistance up near $110 back from 2014.
Over in the grains, activity was actually fairly quiet to end the week and for the week even with the bearish USDA supply and demand report earlier in the week. Towards the end of the week was another round of winter weather for the North and Midwest. Temps will be more spring like this week but a round of spring weather coming with it.
Egypt made a surprise purchase, typically buying wheat from local farmers in April, with four cargoes (240,000 MT or 8.8 MBU), of which three cargoes from Romania and one cargo from Ukraine. Prices paid were $9/MT cheaper than US SRW.
In the commitment of trader’s report, managed money through Tuesday’s trade, -25k Corn (net short -271.7k), +2.1k Chicago Wheat (net short -54.2k), +1.9k KC Wheat (net short -47.7k), +2.8k Soybeans (net short -71.3k), +3.8k Soybean Meal (net short -8.6k) and -4.6k Soybean Oil (net short -31.6k).
For the week, Friday April 5th to Friday April 12th, May Corn -$.01 ½, New Crop December -$.01, May Soybeans -$.03 ¾, New Crop November -$.05, May KC Wheat +$.03, New Crop July +$.03 ¼, May Chicago Wheat -$.03 ¼, New Crop July -$.01 ¼, May MPLS Wheat +$.08 ¾, New Crop September +$.05 ¼, May Soybean Meal -$.10/T, December -$.80/T.
Overnight, grains were mixed with corn 1 to 2 higher, soybeans 3 to 4 higher and wheat 3 to 4 lower. SovEcon raised their wheat production estimate to 83.4 MMT.
USDA announced a private sale this morning of 140,000 MT or 5.1 MBU or soybeans sold for unknown destination.
NOPA March crush out later this morning with estimates at 168.03 MBU domestically compared to 154.5 MBU last month and 171.86 MBU last March, a record for the month.
Heavy rains again in the forecast for later this week, especially for the already flooding Mississippi River Valley and surrounding Corn Belt states. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal temps for all expect the PNW and Southeast with above normal precipitation west and north and below normal for the Southeast.
May corn with a new contact low last week at $3.55 ¼, support next at $3.52 ½ (March contract low) and resistance up near $3.66 then $3.80. May soybeans still holding a lower trend since February with resistance at $9.12 and support at $8.83. May KC wheat with resistance up at $4.54, contract low at $4.18 ¼. May Chicago wheat with resistance up at $4.78, support at $4.52 ½ and the contract low at $4.27. May soybean meal forming a wedge now that intersects near $310 with a possibility for a nearby breakout, resistance at $312.30 and support at $306.80.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700