Cattle futures opened up the week with a head fake to the downside that didn’t last very long and quickly turned into the third consecutive session of higher closes across the complex. Some solid gains to chalk up into the close with fats gaining $1-2 and feeders up $1-4+ being most impressive on the front end. Live cattle continued their steady march up towards their contract highs, but they have not made it up there yet. Hopefully some stronger nearby support was built, although August live cattle did leave a small gap below at the end of last week around $212.70. The feeder cattle on the other hand had all of the 2025 contracts advancing up into new contract highs yesterday. The script has flipped back to solid bullish for feeder cattle, but I’ll counter that with the statement that it is important to tread with caution as that can change in an instant with a singular news headline.
Last Wednesday, June 30th, USDA APHIS came out with a statement regarding a plan for phased reopening of live animal imports at some southern ports. The first opening was due to start yesterday at the Douglas, AZ port, but I have not seen confirmation of that yet as USDA has not released another statement since then. The closure to those imports since May have sure helped prop these markets up, but if re-openings go as planned, that could definitely be a bearish fundamental aspect to challenge high prices.
National feeder and stocker cattle summary for the week ending July 5- Compared to last week, calves and feeder cattle were too lightly tested through the auction markets for adequate trend due to the 4th of July Holiday. However, buyers did have their eyes and ears tuned into two large video auctions. Cattle Country Video in Wyoming sold nearly 45,500, almost 15,000 head more than same sale last year. Big Bang Video at Joplin Livestock receipts came close to 60,000 head, about 6,000 head more than previous year. Record prices prevailed at both sales for current cattle all the way to the end of the year. These two videos will give forward momentum for the video, auction and special BBQ sales in the weeks to come. Cash fed cattle market still outperforms the futures contracts, which is causing cattle feeders to pay little attention to it and keep focused on the positive market fundamentals.
Cattle slg.__ was 114K, -4k compared to wa, +2k compared to ya.
Choice Beef Cutout__390.98 +1.23.
Select Cutout__377.53 -0.91.
CME Feeder Cattle Index: $312.04 +0.08.
Hog slg.__ was 478K, +9k from wa, +15k compared to ya.
Lean Index. 108.33 -1.18__ Pork cutout___ 113.49 +3.28.
*****************************************************************************
In the grain and oilseed trade, not much else to say other than flat out ugly yesterday. Markets may have been expecting more trade deal announcements out of President Trump when he spoke in Iowa late last week, although a lot of support for farmers came with the signing of the Big Beautiful Bill. Weather continues to be non-threatening for major growing areas, aside from the horrific flooding that took place down in Texas. The corn belt continues to get rain, along with the southern plains up to the northern plains. Locally, recent small rains have helped keep crops growing fast as corn fields have been putting tassels and silks on over the past week to two weeks, although probably putting a damper on folks trying to get their hay put up.
Weekly export inspections report for the week ending July 3- Once again, another strong week for corn shipments, soybean and wheat inspections were also pretty good, but milo was terrible again. Corn inspections totaled 58.7 MBU compared to 54.4 M the week prior. MYTD is ahead of last year’s pace by 30% now with USDA only projecting a 16% increase in exports YOY. Soybean shipments totaled 14.3 MBU compared to only 8.7 M the week prior. Beans are still hanging in there, but not as well as corn. Currently 11% ahead of LY with USDA’s export projection up 9% YOY. Milo inspections were 354K BU, staying behind pace being 63% behind LY with the estimate only declining by 58% YOY. Lastly, wheat inspections were 16 MBU for the week compared to 17.5 M the week prior. That moved current MYTD ahead of LY’s pace by 1% with USDA projecting a 1% increase. Mexico was the top destination for corn, wheat and milo, with Egypt the top taker of beans. Brazil was actually the number 2 taker of wheat which was kind of odd.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed corn silking at 18%, -4% from LY, but +3% from the 5 yr avg. 3% of the corn crop has reached the dough stage. Corn conditions improve by 1 to now 74% GE and 5% PVP. Soybeans now 96% emerged, -2% from LY and the avg pace. 32% blooming and 8% setting pods which are both right in line to a little ahead of the avg. Soybean conditions left unchanged overall at 66% GE and 7% PVP. Milo is 96% planted which is just slightly behind. 13% coloring and 22% headed which is in line with LY but -1% from the avg. Milo conditions improved by adding 3 to the GE now at 67% and dropping 1 to 6% rated PVP. Winter wheat has gained some headway on harvest now at 53% which is behind LY by 9% but only 1 behind the avg pace. Winter wheat conditions improved slightly dropping 2 from the poor category, now rated 48% GE and 18% PVP. Spring wheat is ahead of pace at 61% headed, but conditions declined to now just 50% rated GE and 15% PVP.
8am sales this morning showed 112,776 MT’s of new crop corn sold to Mexico.
IMPORTANT—PLEASE NOTE
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used