Date: May 12, 2025
Livestock futures were mixed last Friday, cattle higher week over week while lean hogs drifted lower. June live cattle up to a new contract high at $215.60 and the all-time spot contract high at $217.67 the last trading day for April live cattle before expiration. May feeders continue to make new all-time spot highs now at $298.50. August and September both cleared the $300 level for the first time in history. Cash feedlot trade continues higher with trade in Southern Plains from $218 to $222 live, steady to $4 higher and trade in North $225 to $228 live, $3 to $5 higher and $355 to $360 on a dressed basis, $10 to $15 higher.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats… June Live Cattle +$3.57, August +$2.80, May Feeder Cattle +$3.02, August +$3.40, May Lean Hogs -$2.57, June -$1.77. Boxed Beef Choice +$3.07 @ $345.97 & Pork Carcass Cutout -$.55 @ $97.83.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/4/2025 – 5/10/2025
Total Receipts: 21,930 Last Week: 20,161 Last Year: 19,622
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and steer calves fully steady. Feeder heifers 1.00-6.00 higher. Heifer calves steady except 300-400lbs 10.00 higher. Demand good. Slaughter cows 2.00-4.00 higher. Slaughter bulls steady. Packer demand remains strong. No rain is in the forecast for this week.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 559,000 head, matching the week previous but down 57,000 from last year with year to date now -6.2% vs. last year. Beef production last week estimated at 489.3 million pounds with year to date -2.6%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,437,000 head, down 49,000 compared to a week ago but up 57,000 compared to a year ago with year to date -2.2% compared to last year. Pork production last week estimated at 528.9 million pounds with year to date -1.8%.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Friday on moderate demand with 105 loads sold.
Choice -1.92 @ 345.97, Select -2.03 @ 331.17
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 296.14
CME Lean Hog Index @ 89.99
Cash Pork Carcass Cutout +3.33 @ 97.83
News over the weekend could have big impacts to futures today, specifically the suspension of cattle, horse and bison imports once again from Mexico due to the spread of New World Screwworn. The other big news being the massive reduction in tariffs between China and U.S. Effective immediately, all import tariffs imposed on China dropping from 145% back down to 30% and China cutting all import tariffs imposed on U.S. goods from 125% down to 10%.
June live cattle again up to a new contract high last Friday at $215.60, the all-time spot high at $217.67, with support at $208. May feeders also a new contract high and all-time spot high last Friday at $298.50 with support at $291. June lean hogs rallied nearly $14 in the month of April with resistance at $102 but the past two weeks now holding a lower trend with support at $96.67 then around $95.
Grains were mixed last Friday but mostly lower week over week. Soybeans gained enough on Friday for new crop to finish unchanged, most of the pressure on old crop corn and all three wheat markets. Fall crops held small gains on Friday, most likely some short covering ahead of today’s USDA crop report. Soybean old crop stocks are projected slightly lower than last month’s 375 MBU with new crop stocks average estimate at 362 MBU. Corn old crop stocks are pegged at 1.443 BBU, down 22 million from last month on increased exports again this month. New crop stocks are a different story, with a bearish start just above 2 BBU. Pressure on wheat markets due to expected increased production from very good weather this spring. The average pre report trade estimate for winter wheat at 1.325 BBU. Old crop wheat ending stocks are expected to increase 4 million to 850 MBU with new crop stocks estimated at 863 MBU, both still bearish as well.
Weekly closes in the grains…July Corn -$.19 ¼, December -$.08 ¼, July Soybeans -$.06 ¼, November unchanged, July Chicago Wheat -$.21 ¼, September -$.20 ¼, July KC Wheat -$.23 ¾, September -$.23 ¾, July MPLS Wheat -$.17 ½, July Soybean Meal -$2.80/T.
Grains were mixed overnight led higher by soybeans. Again the larger than expected tariff reductions between China and U.S. the most influential. Beans finished the overnight 17 to 19 higher, corn 3 to 5 higher and wheat steady to 3 lower. Outside markets also like the news with equities sharply higher, US$ higher and energies higher with crude oil up $2/barrel. USDA announced a private sale this morning of 120,000 MT or 4.4 MBU of soybeans sold to Mexico, 3.5 MBU of the total for new crop. Export inspections out later this morning along with the monthly crop report then crop progress this afternoon.
Warm and summer like weather this week with the heaviest rains forecast for the Northern Plains and the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the most of the South and below normal temps north with above normal precipitation across most of the country, normal to below normal only on the West Coast and in the Southwest.
July corn trending lower since a new 2-month high at $4.97 ½ back on April 14th. A new 5-month low was hit last week at $4.42 ¼ with support next at $4.37 and nearby resistance around $4.70. July soybeans choppy the past few weeks but breaking resistance overnight for a new 3-month high at $10.72 with support at $10.36 and resistance next around $10.80. July Chicago wheat down to a new contract low overnight at $5.15 ½ with resistance at $5.48. July KC wheat also a new contract low overnight at $5.11 ¾ and resistance at $5.45. July MPLS wheat contract low at $5.88 ¾ back on March 28th with resistance at $6.17. July soybean meal holding a lower trend with the contract low at $289.7 on April 4th and resistance at $300.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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