Date: July 6th, 2020
Cattle futures were higher last week as hog futures continue lower. Cash feedlot trade for the short week reported at $93 to $95 live and $152 to $155 dressed which is $2 lower to $2 higher from the week previous depending on the region. Weekly export sales remain very strong for pork and solid for beef, yet not enough still to continue to move the extra product we continue to produce from the additional numbers and higher weights.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 07/02/2020
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 79,600 33,600 15,900 129,100
Last Week: 155,900 55,000 60,600 271,500
Year Ago: 24,700 27,200 39,200 91,100
Auction Receipts: 79,600 Last Week 155,900 Last Year 24,700
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 2.00 higher. Lighter receipts this week due to the holiday occurring this weekend especially in the Northern Plains and Southeast this week as most sales take some time off to do maintenance on their yards and get that new paint smell in the sales arena. Drought conditions in some Southern and Northern Plains regions are in the minds of those that are affected by the situation. Cattle in those areas are coming to the sales off dry summer grass or coming out of grow yards. Several cows are headed to town in Wyoming and Western Nebraska.
For the week, Friday June 26th through Thursday July 2nd, August Live Cattle +$3.37, October +$3.20, August Feeder Cattle +$2.27, September +$2.07, July Lean Hogs -$3.72, August -$3.60. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.73 @ $205.44, Select -$.09 @ $198.76. Pork Carcass Cutout +$.51 @ $66.46.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 121,000 head, up 1,000 from the week previous, bringing week to date up to 484,000 which is up 5,000 from the week previous. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 461,000 head, down 11,000 compared to the week previous but week to date at 1,867,000 which is up 21,000 compared to the week previous.
Boxed beef cutout values steady with 156 loads sold on Thursday.
Choice Cutout__205.44 +.06
Select Cutout__198.76 +.33
CME Feeder Index__129.05 -.08
CME Lean Hog Index__45.01 -.26
Pork Carcass Cutout__66.46 +2.84
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__27.65 -.78
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__28.61 -.07
Outside markets are supportive to start this week with equites higher and the US$ lower. August live cattle have been holding a steady to lower trend since early May since posting a breakout to the upside last Thursday. Follow through will be important to see today and break above the $105 area could lead to additional buying with support around $95. August feeders chopping sideways the past month, holding a slow moving higher trend since mid-April with support at $128.30 and resistance around $136. July lean hogs continuing to hold a lower trend with a new contract low last week at $44.50, support next around $37 from the continuous weekly chart and resistance up at $50.
Grains pulled back Thursday ahead of the 3-day weekend but still finished sharply higher for the week due to the friendly acreage report last Tuesday. The hot and dry forecast also adding support heading into the critical pollination time period for corn. Wheat pulled back the hardest as it has only been a follower with modest gains last week. The Northern Plains or at least along the Canadian Border are still seeing above normal moisture in the forecast keeping pressure on the MPLS wheat contracts.
For the week, Friday June 26th through Thursday July 2nd, September Corn +$.24 ¼, December +$.28 ¼, August Soybeans +$.31 ¼, November +$.35 ½, September KC Wheat +$.06 ¼, December +$.05 ¾, September Chicago Wheat +$.16 ¼, December +$.15 ¾, September MPLS Wheat +$.01 ½, December +$.00 ¼, August Soybean Meal +$10.90/T, December +$13.60/T.
Overnight, grains were back higher led by soybeans which finished 11 to 13 higher. Corn and wheat finished 3 to 4 higher.
USDA announced the following export sales this morning…
– 182,880 MT or 7.2 MBU of corn to Mexico, 4.8 MBU of new crop and 2.4 MBU for the 2021/22 marketing year
– 202,000 MT or 7.95 MBU of new crop corn to China
– 264,000 MT or 9.7 MBU of old crop soybeans to China
Most expect to see stable crop ratings for both corn and soybeans in this afternoon’s crop conditions report. Many areas in the Midwest though continue to see soil moisture depleting. Some spotty rains this past week have helped but general coverage was light. This week’s forecast still calling for much above normal temps and even excessive heat from midweek on. The 6-10 day outlook continuing to showing above normal temps across the U.S. except in the PNW with below normal moisture from the Rockies and Southwest into the Midwest.
September corn into new 3-month highs last week with resistance next around $3.60 and support at $3.39. August soybeans into new 4-month highs with resistance up around $9.20 and support at $8.70. September KC wheat hitting a new contract low on June 26th at $4.23 ¾ with resistance at $4.50 then $4.73. September Chicago wheat also with a new contract low on June 26th at $4.17 with resistance at $5.00.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700