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Back on Monday we got the monthly crop production report out from USDA and they also release S&D’s for the meats every month, along with that grain data. The production projections for beef continue to look really bullish. Back in 2022, beef production set an all-time record of over 28 bln lbs, it dropped off hard in 2023 to just over 27 bln, this year’s projection is 26.8 bln lbs and in 2025 the latest prognostication is for 25.5 bln lbs. Sharply declining production is great for bullish banter by analysts, but there’s a lot bigger picture to digest then just the production total. Beef exports have dropped considerably from a year ago with next year looking even worse. Imports have increased significantly also and…

Date: August 14, 2024 Livestock futures were mixed on Tuesday with cattle futures higher, led by $2+ gains for feeders, while lean hogs traded lower. Cattle are testing nearby resistance now, but unable to break through yesterday. Higher futures have certainly led to higher cash. Early week salebarn reports posting higher prices than a week ago and cash fed cattle trade has yet to develop but asking prices in the South were firm at $187 to $188 live. Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/12/2024 - Final Total Receipts: 5,428 Last Week: 3,864 Last Year: 8,114 Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-6.00 higher. Steer calves 10.00 higher in a light test. Feeder heifers steady to 4.00…

The winning streak of five consecutive higher closes in KC wheat came to an end yesterday and wheat finished lower along with corn and soybeans. It cooled off finally and there’s moisture in the forecast for a good part of the Corn Belt, so weather premium is coming out. There’s also a lot of disappointment in soybeans where three days ago there was a lot of talk about China actively buying US beans, but the 8am USDA daily export announcements were silent in the two days following that chatter and we got nothing on that front today either. Big up in futures on the rumor, then solid lower so far since nothing materialized. Weekly EIA ethanol data showed production down 4% from the previous week,…

Parts of the market got a little reprieve from recent beatings yesterday and part of it didn’t. Dec corn got hit with a double whammy of new recent lows and big time support being violated, along with dropping below the “3” handle. That’s the first time since 2020 that a Dec futures contract traded below $4 in the expiring year. To date, front end corn and MGEX wheat were the only two in the grains that hadn’t hit a new low water mark and in the past two days it finally happened unfortunately. It’s hard to fight funds jumping back on the sell side after only a brief reprieve after covering some of the record short positions in beans and corn, but they’ve been back…

In the grain and oilseed trade, we got a little breather from the relentless selling that’s been so prevalent lately. Wheat managed double digit higher closes in a few contract months, corn was mildly higher and beans were mixed with pressure on new crop and mildly higher old crop closes. Managed money is still at or really close to record short both corn and beans and that’s been a dark cloud looming over grains lately. One could easily make an argument that specs are so heavily weighted on the sell side that downside should be limited from here, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned from the past, it’s that records are made to be broken and sometimes they are broken by a wide, wide…

Date: July 17, 2024 Cattle futures opened up lower to start the session off yesterday after a very quiet day of trading on Monday. Tuesday’s trade again fairly quiet with no $1+ moves in either direction once again. All cattle contracts, except for the nearby August feeders, finished with small gains. With two uneventful days in a row after testing up trending support late last week, it appears futures are content with waiting for some influence from cash feedlot trade. So far this week, only very light volume has been reported in the North at $195 to $197 live, $1 to $3 lower than the bulk of last week’s trade. We also have a Cattle on Feed report coming this Friday with the average estimate…

Date: July 10, 2024 Livestock futures all settled lower on Tuesday but did trade both sides. Cattle futures were higher during the morning trading hours, but as soon as the midday beef report came out sharply lower, cattle futures fell off and finished triple digits lower. Domestic beef demand seasonally begins to slow after Independence Day. The futures liquidation so far this week looks to pressure cash feedlot trade as well. There has only been some very light volume reported so far this week at $190 live and $317 dressed, steady with last week. Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/8/2024 - Final Total Receipts: 4,366 Last Week: 2,431 Last Year: 6,879 Compare to last week: Feeder…

Date: July 8, 2024 Livestock futures were mixed on Friday but all held week over week gains. Weekly export sales for beef were not very impressive at 15,500 MT but pork sales were a new marketing year high at 59,100 MT. Cash fed cattle trade was only reported on light volume as of the close on Friday steady with the week previous. Live trade at $190 in the South and trade in the North mostly $198 to $200 live and $310 to $315 on a dressed basis. Northern trade was holding out for higher money, above $200 live and $317 dressed. Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats… August Live Cattle +$1.00, October +$2.30, August Feeder Cattle +$2.17, September +$2.57, July Lean Hogs +$.42, August…

Date: June 26, 2024 Livestock futures were mixed on Tuesday with cattle futures trading both sides of unchanged and settling mixed while lean hogs continue to make new lows. July lean hogs made a new contract low, taking out the previous contract low that was hit back in May 2023. October live cattle hit a new 8-month high on Tuesday, with just a few days left until expiration, as higher cash trade has been the most supportive factor bringing futures sharply higher the past couple weeks to converge with the cash trade. Higher beef prices of course continue to support the cattle market as well. A recap of last week’s cash fed cattle trade showed feedlots selling 73,368 head, nearly 80% of that for nearby…

Date: June 24, 2024 Livestock futures were mixed this past week with small gains for live cattle and lean hogs but triple digits losses week over week for feeder cattle. As of the close on Friday, only light volume cash feedlot trade had been reported from $193 to $198 live and $310 to $312 on a dressed basis. This is steady to $2 higher with the week previous, matching the top end reported by the end of the week. After the close, volume picked up with live trade in the South from $189 to $191, $3 to $5 higher than the week previous and trade in the North $4 to $6 higher from $198 to $199 live and $310 to $314 dressed. Neutral to bearish…