Date: September 30, 2024
Livestock futures were mixed last Friday but again all higher week over week. New recent highs were hit for both fats and feeders on Friday. Support coming from higher cash feedlot trade again last week. Cash fed cattle trade in Texas and Kansas mostly at $185 live, $2 to $3 higher than the week previous. Trade in the North ranging from $185 to $187 live and $292 to $294 dressed, $2 to $4 higher than a week ago.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats… October Live Cattle +$1.27, December +$1.27, September Feeder Cattle +$.57, October +$3.17, October Lean Hogs +$3.60, December +$2.07. Choice Boxed Beef -$3.50 at $296.69 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$1.60 at $95.75.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary (9/22/24-9/28/24)
Total Receipts: 30,303 Last Week: 32,291 Last Year: 29,151
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher. Steer calves weighting 500-600lbs 5.00 higher. Steer calves under 500lbs sharply higher in a light test. Feeder heifers and heifer calves steady to 2.00 lower except 4 weights 7.00 higher. Demand moderate to good.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 612,000 head, up 2,000 from the week previous and matching last year with YTD now -3.9%. Beef production estimated at 524.1 million pounds and YTD -0.8% vs. last year.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,569,000 head, up 63,000 compared to the week previous but down 48,000 compared to a year ago with YTD still +1.2%. Prok production estimated at 543.3 million pounds and YTD +1.6% vs. a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate demand with 96 loads sold.
Choice +.32 @ 296.69, Select -.29 @ 282.08
CME Feeder Cattle Index 245.53
CME Lean Hog Index 84.03
Pork Carcass Cutout +1.11 @ 95.75
October live cattle again up to a new recent high last Friday at $185.10 with support at $182 and resistance next up at $189. October feeders also up to a new recent high on Friday at $248.62 with support at $237.50 and resistance next $250.55. October lean hogs still chopping sideways with resistance at $83.37 and support at $81 then $78.20.
Soybeans and meal led the grains higher with a surge higher to end the week. Meal shot higher as the EU confirmed it will proceed with the deforestation program later this year requiring imports of meal and oil to be certified that were not produced by crops grown on land that was cleared by deforestation. Beans now higher 5 out last 6 weeks and corn able to make it a 5th consecutive week higher. Still dry in Brazil as planting has begun or will begin very soon, there are rain chances in the extended forecasts. Fall harvest should have made very good progress over the weekend especially across the WCB. Not much activity for the ECB though with showers from the remnants of Hurricane Helene and flooding in parts of the Southeast.
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn +$.16 ¼, March +$.15, November Soybeans +$.53 ¾, January +$.53 ½, December Chicago Wheat +$.11 ½, March +$.12 ¾, December KC Wheat +$.12 ¾, March +$.14 ¼, December MPLS Wheat +$.00 ¼, October Soybean Meal +$26.3/T.
Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans the leader lower, corn trading both sides of unchanged and wheat holding small gains. Beans finished the overnight 7 lower, corn ½ to ¾ lower and wheat 4 to 5 higher. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ steady to higher and energies higher with crude oil up $.10/barrel.
USDA reported a private sale this morning of 116,000 MT or 4.3 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China. China on holiday all week, so we most likely won’t see any more sales announcements. Pressure on all markets could come from the looming longshoreman strike that could shut down ports from the East Coast down into the Gulf.
Today will bring the end of month and quarter along with a Quarterly Stocks report and Small Grains summary. All wheat production average estimate at 1.966 BBU, 16 MBU smaller than the last estimate by USDA in August. The quarterly stocks report for corn and beans will update the old crop ending stocks. The average trade estimate for each slightly higher than USDA’s estimates from earlier this month…1.844 BBU for corn vs. 1.812 BBU and 351 MBU for soybeans vs. 340 MBU.
Warm and dry conditions across most of the U.S. this week. We still have some lingering showers for parts of the ECB today. The 6-10 day outlook still showing well above normal temps for the western half of the country and normal to above normal temps for the eastern half with below normal precipitation for all except along the East Coast.
December corn new recent high last Friday at $4.19 ¾ with resistance next at $4.23 and support at $4.01. November soybeans again up to a new recent high last Friday as well at $10.69 ½ with resistance next at $10.80 and nearby support at $10.31. December Chicago wheat up to a new 2-month high on September 13th at $5.98 ¾ with resistance next at $6.15 and support at $5.64. December KC wheat also a new 2-month high on the 13th at $6.04 ¼ with resistance next at $6.14 and support at $5.61. December MPLS wheat a new recent high at $6.37 ¾ with support at $6.03. October soybean meal spiking up for a new recent high last Friday at $345.6 with resistance next at $356 and support at $314.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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