Date: August 26, 2024
August live cattle holding steady as we near expiration but October down into new 4-month lows and deferred contracts into new contract lows last week. August feeders also steady for the week but into new lows for the year midweek as September forward contracts all made new contract lows. Lean hogs on the other hand rallied last week and hit new recent highs. Cash fed cattle trade in Texas and Kansas done mostly at $183 with some at $184 which is $1-$2 lower than the week previous with trade in Nebraska $5 lower ranging from $184 to $190 live and dressed trade from $293 to $295.
USDA cattle on feed report after the close on Friday was neutral to bearish with August 1st on feed slightly above a year ago at 11.1 million head. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.70 million head, 6% above a year ago vs. expectations of 4% higher. Marketings totaled 1.86 million head, 7.7% higher than last July and just slightly lower than expected.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats… August Live Cattle -$.22, October -$2.60, August Feeder Cattle -$.20, September -$.92, October Lean Hogs +$5.47, December +$3.52. Choice Boxed Beef -$.11 at $317.34 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$.38 at $99.05.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary (8/18/24-8/24/24)
Total Receipts: 19,193 Last Week: 19,686 Last Year: 21,014
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 6.00-11.00 lower. Steer calves 18.00-20.00 lower. Heifers 4.00-9.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 608,000 head, up 6,000 from the week previous but down 18,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 513.9 million pounds last week with year to date remaining -1.3% vs. last year and year to date slaughter -4.2%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,503,000 head, down 9,000 compared to the week previous but up 9,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 526.3 million pounds with year to date reaming +1.5% compared to a year ago but year to date slaughter down slightly vs. a week ago now +1.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate to good demand with 126 loads sold.
Choice +1.35 @ 317.34, Select -1.57 @ 300.46
CME Feeder Cattle Index 241.70
CME Lean Hog Index 88.22
Pork Carcass Cutout +2.62 @ 99.05
August live cattle set to expire later this week and holding between $185 and just below $180 for the majority of this past month. October will then be the front month with a new 4-month low last week at $173.72, support next at $170.82 and resistance $181 then $182.50. August feeders will also expire later this week, hitting a new recent low last week at $237.10, resistance at $248.95. September will then be the front month, already making a new contract low last week at $232.80 with nearby resistance around $243. October lean hogs up to a new recent high last Friday at $80.92 with resistance next at $83.50 and support at $74.70.
Wheat futures led the way lower on Friday and into new contract lows. Corn futures were lower as well but were able to hold recent support and not make new lows. Soybeans rallied back higher on Friday to lock in week over week gains. Lower prices have at least led to some new crop export demand with sales announced every day last week. The lower US$, into new lows for the year on Friday, also helping U.S. export values to become competitive again. The recent heat wave could have been more supportive to prices last week. The annual Pro Farmer fall crop tour concluded last week with a national corn yield estimate slightly lower than USDA at 181.1 BPA but their soybean yield was higher than USDA at 54.9.
Weekly closes in the grains… September Corn -$.02 ¾, December -$.01 ½, September Soybeans +$.13 ¼, November +$.16, September Chicago Wheat -$.27 ¾, December -$.24 ½, September KC Wheat -$.34, December -$.35 ½, September MPLS Wheat -$.41 ½, September Soybean Meal +$2.9/T.
Grains all lower overnight and new lows for all expected soybeans. Corn finished the overnight 4 to 5 lower, soybeans 7 to 8 lower and wheat 5 to 13 lower. Outside markets have equities mixed, US$ higher and energies higher with crude oil up $2/barrel.
Hot and dry for the first part of this week, but cooling off later this week and good rain chances for the upper Midwest with light and scattered chances across all major growing areas. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the western third of the country and for the Southeast with below normal temps for the WCB and above normal moisture from the Southern Plains to the East Coast with below normal moisture for the Northern Border States and the Southwest.
December corn down to a new low overnight at $3.85 ½ with support next around $3.80 and resistance at $4.03. November soybeans holding support at $9.55, the new contract low hit last week, with resistance at $9.85. September Chicago wheat down to a new contract low overnight at $4.96 ½, the first time for the spot month below the $5 mark since July 2020, resistance at $5.36 ½. September KC wheat hit a new contract low overnight at $5.12 ½ with resistance at $5.45. September MPLS wheat a new contract low overnight as well at $5.38 ¼ with resistance at $5.83. September soybean meal contract low on August 13th at $299.40, the first time for the spot month below the $300 level since August 2020, resistance at $318.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
IMPORTANT—PLEASE NOTE
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.