Date: July 10, 2024
Livestock futures all settled lower on Tuesday but did trade both sides. Cattle futures were higher during the morning trading hours, but as soon as the midday beef report came out sharply lower, cattle futures fell off and finished triple digits lower. Domestic beef demand seasonally begins to slow after Independence Day. The futures liquidation so far this week looks to pressure cash feedlot trade as well. There has only been some very light volume reported so far this week at $190 live and $317 dressed, steady with last week.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/8/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 4,366 Last Week: 2,431 Last Year: 6,879
Compare to last week: Feeder steers over 800lbs steady to 2.00 higher; under 800lbs 3.00-5.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves unevenly steady. 7 weight index steers averaged $266 to $277 and 8 weights averaged $256 to $263.50.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/8/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 10,622 Last Week: 6,620 Last Year: 12,676
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 2.00-9.00 higher with some light 5 weight steers selling 15.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 800 lbs. sold 5.00-9.00 higher with heavier weights selling steady to 2.00 lower. Supply was heavy with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $267-$269 and 8 weights averaged $254-$259.50
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/9/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 1,797 Last Week: 2,070 Last Year: 4,714
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 700 lbs. sold 10.00-15.00 higher. Feeder steers over 700 lbs. were 2.00-4.00 higher while feeder heifers were not well tested. Demand was good on a light supply. Overnight rains continued throughout most of the day, as the remnant of hurricane Beryl moved through the area, keeping receipts lighter than expected.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, up 2,000 from last week but down 8,366 head from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 476,000 head, up 5,000 compared to a week ago and up 7,269 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on moderate to good demand with 130 loads sold.
Choice -4.81 @ 325.66, Select -.41 @ 304.31
CME Feeder Cattle Index 257.33
CME Lean Hog Index 88.43
Pork Carcass Cutout -2.24 @ 93.75
August live cattle still holding a higher trend even with the $4+ loss so far this week. Nearby support now at $180.35, an open gap then down to $179.67 with resistance up at last Friday’s new 9-month high at $188.25. August feeders still very choppy but holding onto the slightly higher trend since mid-April with resistance at $264.95. Nearby support was taken out yesterday with the next at the June low at $250.80. July lean hogs expire next Monday and look fairly content between $91 and the contract low from June 26th at $88.65. August lean hogs also hit a new contract low on June 26th at $86.22 with support next at $85 and resistance at the July high at $91.17.
Grains were mixed on Tuesday soybeans taking another dive lower but corn and wheat able to hold steady to minor gains. New lows again for beans as corn is desperately trying to hold the lows from Monday amidst a new record short position now for managed money or the funds.
Fall crop conditions improved Monday afternoon as most were expecting another 1 to 2% decline. U.S. weather still seen overall as non-threatening with drier areas receiving recent rains and flooded areas turning drier.
Grains a bit quieter overnight but again mixed with corn finishing steady to 2 lower, beans steady to 3 higher and wheat steady to 7 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ lower, and energies lower with crude oil down $.10/barrel. USDA announced a private sale this morning of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of new crop soybeans for delivery to China, yes I said China as we finally get their first confirmed new crop bean purchase this year.
The weekly EIA will be out later this morning with expectations for production to be 2% lower due to flood related disruptions. Brazil’s CONAB will report monthly production estimates on Thursday then USDA will release its July crop report Friday morning. The average trade estimates for old crop corn and beans expected to be unchanged to slightly lower while wheat stocks will come up to match the quarterly stocks report at the end of June. New crop ending stocks expected to be higher for both wheat and corn vs. a month ago while soybean ending stocks are expected to be lower.
Temps continue to increase this week with triple digits coming back into the Southern Plains by the weekend. Heavy rains move out of the ECB into the Northeast and East Coast. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps across the entire country with above normal moisture in the Southwest, Central Plains and East Coast and below normal moisture from the PNW.
December corn spiking down to a 2-year low at $4.05 ¾ on Monday with support next at $4 and $3.95 and resistance at $4.26 ½ then around $4.50. November soybeans down to a new 2-year low overnight at $10.72, with resistance around $11.30 then $11.70. September Chicago wheat contract low back on March 6th at $5.50, down to a new recent low 2 weeks ago at $5.56 ¾ with resistance at $5.92. September KC wheat also hit a contract low on March 6th at $5.52, down to new recent low overnight at $5.70 ¼ with resistance at $6.00. September MPLS wheat down to a new contract low on June 25th at $6.02 with resistance at $6.36. August soybean meal breaking nearby support this week with the next down at $337 and resistance at $360.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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