Date: June 26, 2024
Livestock futures were mixed on Tuesday with cattle futures trading both sides of unchanged and settling mixed while lean hogs continue to make new lows. July lean hogs made a new contract low, taking out the previous contract low that was hit back in May 2023. October live cattle hit a new 8-month high on Tuesday, with just a few days left until expiration, as higher cash trade has been the most supportive factor bringing futures sharply higher the past couple weeks to converge with the cash trade. Higher beef prices of course continue to support the cattle market as well. A recap of last week’s cash fed cattle trade showed feedlots selling 73,368 head, nearly 80% of that for nearby delivery, with full range from $183 to $199 live, weighted average at $194.31, and $304 to $314 dressed, weighted average at $310.60. Only light volume trade reported so far this week in the North at $195 live.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/24/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 5,013 Last Week: 4,139 Last Year: 6,946
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00-3.00 higher. Steer calves 3.00-5.00 lower. Feeder heifers 2.00-5.00 lower. Heifer calves 5.00-8.00 lower. Quality plain to average. Demand Moderate. Calf buyers were more cautious this week because of the heat and drying conditions. 7 weight index steers averaged $265-$270 and 8 weights averaged $247-$258.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/24/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 9,031 Last Week: 6,465 Last Year: 10,989
Compared to last week feeder steer calves sold 7.00-14.00 lower. Yearling steers over 725 lbs. sold steady to 6.00 higher. Feeder heifer calves sold 2.00-4.00 lower. Yearling heifers over 700 lbs. sold steady to 10.00 higher. The bulk of the offering consisted of yearling type cattle with calves only lightly tested, which contributed to the lower trade. 7 weight index steers averaged $261-$263 and 8 weights averaged $255-$259.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD sale for 6/24 was cancelled due to severe flooding and closure of many highways.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, down 2,000 from last week and down 7,464 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 481,000 head, down 1,000 compared to a week ago but up 14,736 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate to good demand with 121 loads sold.
Choice +.75 @ 323.39, Select +.19 @ 305.26
CME Feeder Cattle Index 257.90
CME Lean Hog Index 89.95
Pork Carcass Cutout -2.52 @ 95.31
June live cattle again up to a new 8-month high yesterday at $189.65 with the contract set to expire at the end of this week. August up to a new 8-month high on Monday at $185.42 with resistance next at $187.50 and support at $181.25. August feeders continue to chop sideways with a 3-month long slightly higher trend. The recent high on May 29th was $264.95 with support at $254.35. Getting above $265 would suggest a challenge of the February highs from $270 to $272. July lean hogs new contract low yesterday at $88.80 with support next around the $84 level from the weekly chart.
All grains were lower on Tuesday, new recent lows again for corn and Chicago wheat and new contract lows for MPLS wheat. Egypt purchased another big chunk of wheat from multiple origins. Russia was back in the market this round offering wheat at over $40/MT, $1.10/BU, cheaper than two weeks ago. The average price paid was $246.5/MT delivered or $6.71/BU. US equivalent offers would be at least $282/MT, still +$1/BU higher. Corn Belt temps look to moderate from the extreme heat and additional rains expected in the ECB. Ethanol futures have rallied sharply due to excessive rainfall and flooding in the WCB. Quite a few plants were shut down recently as summer demand remains very strong.
Grains able to climb back higher overnight, although new lows hit again for Chicago and MPL wheat. Corn finished the overnight steady, soybeans steady to 8 higher and wheat 1 lower to 3 higher. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher, and energies steady to higher with crude oil up $.10/barrel.
Let’s see if markets calm down some now until the USDA reports come out Friday morning. The June acreage report should be the most impactful with the average trade estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat all slightly higher than the prospective plantings report that came out in March. Quarterly stocks will also be released on Friday which is important as well to see just how close old crop demand has been estimated.
Temps break here midweek across most major growing areas of the U.S. with scattered showers in the forecasts for the WCB over the next few days and still only isolated and spotty chances for the ECB. The 6-10 day outlook still shows above normal temps across the southern half of the U.S. with below normal temps in PNW and above normal moisture in the Southwest and northern half of the country with below normal on the West Coast and in the Southeast.
July corn down to a 4-month low yesterday at $4.23 ½ with the February low the next support at $4.22 ¼ and strong resistance around the $4.50 area. July soybeans holding support at the recent low last week at $11.55 with support next at $11.45 ¾ and resistance at $11.90. July Chicago wheat only 1 tick away from a new contract low overnight at $5.38 with resistance at $6.00. July KC wheat holding support so far this week at $5.72 with the next at $5.68, the April low at $5.53 ¾ and resistance at $6.40. July MPLS wheat down to a new contract low overnight at $5.94 ½ with resistance at $6.75. July soybean meal still holding a higher trend with support at $355 and resistance at $391.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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