Date: June 24, 2024
Livestock futures were mixed this past week with small gains for live cattle and lean hogs but triple digits losses week over week for feeder cattle. As of the close on Friday, only light volume cash feedlot trade had been reported from $193 to $198 live and $310 to $312 on a dressed basis. This is steady to $2 higher with the week previous, matching the top end reported by the end of the week. After the close, volume picked up with live trade in the South from $189 to $191, $3 to $5 higher than the week previous and trade in the North $4 to $6 higher from $198 to $199 live and $310 to $314 dressed.
Neutral to bearish cattle on feed report after the close on Friday. Cattle on feed as of June 1st totaled 11.6 million head, just slightly below a year ago but in essence at 100% vs. last year with the average trade estimate at 99%. May placements totaled 2.05 million head, 4 percent above a year ago and the average trade estimate was only 98.5% vs. last year. May marketings totaled 1.96 million head, in line with expectations and just slightly above a year ago.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…June Live Cattle +$.77, August -$.02, August Feeder Cattle -$3.60, September -$2.80, July Lean Hogs -$1.60, August -$1.12. Choice Boxed Beef +$2.50 at $322.39 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$2.32 at $99.03.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/16/24-6/22/24
Total Receipts: 21,352 Last Week: 23,741 Last Year: 22,242
Compared to last week: Feeders steers 4.00-7.00 higher. Steer calves 5.00-6.00 higher except 5 weight steers 4.00-5.00 lower. Heifers 4.00- 9.00 higher. Demand good. Slaughter cows 1.00-4.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 620,000 head, up 5,000 from the week previous but down 29,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 525.8 million pounds last week with year to date now -1.5% vs. last year and year to date slaughter still -4.4%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,419,000 head, up 39,000 compared to the week previous and up 51,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 521.5 million pounds last week with year to date now +0.9% vs. a year ago and year to date slaughter still +0.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on good demand with 131 loads sold.
Choice -.48 @ 322.39, Select -1.29 @ 303.11
CME Feeder Cattle Index 257.47
CME Lean Hog Index 90.32
Pork Carcass Cutout +1.18 @ 99.03
June live cattle up to a new high for the year last week at $187.85 but the contract will expire at the end of this week. August up to a new 3-month high on Friday at $183.95 with resistance next the spring highs at $185 and support at $176. August feeders continue to chop sideways with a 2-month long slightly higher trend. The recent high on May 29th was $264.95 with support around $250. July lean hogs crashed down to a new 5-month low on June 14th at $90.40 with support just below the $90 level and resistance around $96.
Grains were mixed on Friday but all lower week over week again led by the collapsing wheat markets. Winter wheat harvest and lower world values still keeping pressure on U.S. wheat futures. Excessive rain in parts of the WCB and more in the forecast with above normal temps and rapid drying in the ECB could be problematic but still not enough so spur a summer weather rally just yet. Updated forecasts this week along with the June acreage report and quarterly stocks to end the month will be the main influences this week.
Weekly closes in the grains…July Corn -$.15, December -$.17, July Soybeans -$.19 ¼, November -$.29 ¾, July Chicago Wheat -$.51 ¼, July KC Wheat -$.46 ¼, July MPLS Wheat -$.42 ¾, July Soybean Meal -$6.6/T.
Grains traded both sides of unchanged overnight. Lots of weather chatter over the weekend with record flooding in NW IA to hot and dry in the forecast for the Black Sea region and corn production areas in China. Corn finished the overnight 4 to 5 lower, soybeans steady to 3 lower and wheat steady to 5 lower. Outside markets have equities mixed, US$ lower, and energies mixed with crude oil up $.20/barrel.
USDA announced a private sale this morning of 228K MT of new crop soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines. Weekly export inspections will be released later this morning then crop progress and conditions this afternoon. It wouldn’t surprise me to crop conditions down 1-3% vs. last week.
Very hot temps from TX to IA over the next couple days with a cooldown expected midweek and chance for 1 to 2 inches from Northern OK to NE with heavy rain across portions of the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook still shows above normal temps across the southern and eastern halves of the U.S. with below normal temps now showing up in the North and above normal moisture for most of the country.
July corn down to a 4-month low overnight at $4.30 ¼ with the February low the next support at $4.22 ¼ and strong resistance around the $4.50 area. July soybeans holding support at the recent low last week at $11.55 with support next at $11.45 ¾ and resistance at $11.90. July Chicago wheat closing on the April low at $5.50 with resistance at $6.00. July KC wheat has support next at $5.68 with the April low at $5.53 ¾ and resistance at $6.40. July MPLS wheat down to a new contract low overnight at $6.10 ¼ with resistance at $6.80. July soybean meal still holding a short-term higher trend with support at $355 and resistance at $391.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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