Date: May 22, 2024
Livestock futures were mixed on Tuesday with cattle again hitting new recent highs while lean hogs continue to drift lower. Supporting the cattle market yesterday were lower corn futures, continued technical buying and stronger beef prices. Only light volume cash feedlot trade reported so far this week in the WCB, steady to $2 higher compared to last week, at $190 to $192 live and $298 to $300 on a dressed basis. Lean hogs have lost over half the gains for the year, but continued losses may be limited in the near term as market ready supplies tend to tighten seasonally and packer margins are still firmly in the black.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/20/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 9,804 Last Week: 6,686 Last Year: 10,675
Compared to last week feeder steers are sold from 4.00 lower to 10.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 6.00-12.00 higher. Supply was heavy with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $252-$263 and 8 weights averaged $236.50-$244.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/20/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 6,751 Last Week: 8,350 Last Year: 9,625
Compared to last week: Steers 3.00-6.00 higher. Heifers 4.00-8.00 higher. Light 8 weight heifers up to 12.00 higher. Demand good. Quality average. 7 weight index steers averaged $253-$260 and 8 weights averaged $236-$246.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/20/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 2,717 Last Report: 2,988 Last Year: 2,760
Compared to the sale two weeks ago: Steers 650 lbs 3.00 higher, 800 lbs 1.00 higher, 900 lbs steady to 4.00 lower with much lower head count this week. Heifers 550 lbs 12.00 to sharply higher, 700 lbs 1.00-2.00 higher, 850-900 lbs 3.00-6.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $260-$265 and 8 weights averaged $245-$252.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/21/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 2,996 Last Week: 2,528 Last Year: 2,692
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold firm to 8.00 higher with spots 10.00-15.00 higher on heifer calves. Demand was good to very good for a quality offering of calves and loads of yearlings.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/21/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 5,157 Last Week: 2,717 Last Year: 4,428
Compared to last week, feeder steers sold 4.00-9.00 higher and feeder heifers sold 5.00-10.00 higher with spots 15.00 higher. Demand was very good on a heavy supply. The quality of the offering was above average with several large producers emptying out pastures. October in May is the best way to describe today’s offering.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and down 6,083 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 480,000 head, matching a week ago and up 3,994 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on moderate demand with 100 loads sold.
Choice +.32 @ 313.02, Select +1.52 @ 300.87
CME Feeder Cattle Index 247.75
CME Lean Hog Index 92.01
Pork Carcass Cutout -1.08 @ 100.69
Cattle on feed report coming this Friday and based on pre report average estimates it looks to be bullish. May 1st on feed expected to be 99% vs. a year ago with April placements only 94% compared to last April and marketings expected to jump up to 110%. It would not surprise me to see a little pull back in futures though with the report coming after the close on Friday and then the long 3-day holiday weekend.
June live cattle up to a new 2-month high again yesterday at $183.25 with resistance at $184.65 and support at $178. May feeders with expire tomorrow, finally catching up to the index this week with nearby resistance at $249.70. August will then be the front month with resistance at $261.80 then strong resistance from $271 to $272 and support at $255 then the May low at $249.05. June lean hogs down to a new 4-month low on Tuesday at $95.75 with support next at $93.87 and resistance around $99.
Grains were mixed as well with corn and soybeans lower but wheat continues to climb higher. Outside markets were not helpful with crude oil lower and a firmer US$. Wet weather across major fall crop growing areas this week could push planting pace back below average, yet still not very concerning just yet. Russian wheat crop estimates continue to fall as dry weather and recent freeze events trim production potential. South American weather has calmed down, Brazil 2nd crop corn looks good but damage assessments due to heavy rains and flooding to southern Brazil’s bean crop will take some time.
Grains traded steady to higher overnight, again led by the wheat markets hitting new recent highs. Dry forecasts remain over Russian wheat areas and world wheat prices continue to rally. Illinois Wheat Association concluded their wheat tour yesterday projecting a record high state yield at 104 BPA, topping last year’s record at 97.1 BPA. Corn and beans finished the overnight steady to 2 higher with wheat 4 to 7 higher. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher, and energies lower with crude oil down $.80/barrel.
The weekly EIA report will be out later this morning with expectations for another 1% increase in ethanol production as spring maintenance wraps up. Blender demand should be strong ahead of the Memorial Day weekend along with good exports which overall should lead to a reduction in stocks.
The balance of this week is still forecasted to be wet across the majority of the eastern half of the country with additional rain chances through mid-next week from eastern TX up into the ECB. The 6-10 day outlook shows above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. and in the South with below normal centered on the WCB with above normal precipitation in the Southern Plains, Southeast and East Coast and below normal precip for the western third and Northern Plains into the WCB.
July corn up to a new 4-month high last Tuesday at $4.75 ½ with resistance next at $4.80 and support at $4.51. July soybeans recent high back on May 7th at $12.56 ½ with support at $12.03 ½. July Chicago wheat up to a new 9-month high overnight at $7.16 ¾ with resistance next at $7.27 and support at $6.50. July KC wheat a new 8-month high overnight at $7.19 ¼ with resistance at $7.20 then $7.32 and support at $6.60. July MPLS wheat up to a new 5-month overnight at $7.51 ½ with resistance next at $7.67 and support at $7.10. July soybean meal has support at $365 with resistance at $390.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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