Date: April 29, 2024
Livestock futures mixed again on Friday and for the week with cattle higher but lean hogs lower. Cash fed cattle trade reported steady in TX and KS compared to the week previous at $182 to $183 live. Northern trade at $2 to $3 higher, $185 live and $295 dressed, helped spur the late week rally. There were some additional disturbing stories last week about the Avian Flu in U.S. dairies but at least the live cattle and feeder markets were able to ignore the banter and hold solid 2 week higher trends. Bearish fundamental updates midweek from weekly export sales to cold storage along with lower cash values provided the pressure on lean hogs.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…April Live Cattle +$3.20, June +$2.90, May Feeder Cattle +$6.70, August +$7.05, May Lean Hogs -$1.95, June -$2.35. Choice Boxed Beef +$1.47 at $297.14 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$2.46 at $97.63.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/21/2024 – 4/27/2024
Compared to last week: Steers and heifers 4.00-9.00 higher. The biggest advance was a 7 weight steer 12.00-14.00 higher. Demand good to very good. Slaughter cows 3.00-8.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 9.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 613,000 head, down 7,000 from the week previous and down 14,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 518.6 million pounds last week with year to date -2.6% vs. last year and year to date slaughter -4.7%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,379,000 head, down 108,000 compared to a week ago and down 1,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 513.3 million pounds last week with year to date +0.2% compared to last year and year to date slaughter +0.6%.
Boxed beef cutout values last Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate to good demand with 125 loads sold.
Choice +.22 @ 297.14, Select -.94 @ 288.72
CME Feeder Cattle Index 245.53
CME Lean Hog Index 90.88
Pork Carcass Cutout +.14 @ 97.63
April live cattle in delivery and will expire tomorrow with good support at $180 and converging with cash from $182 to $184. June will then be the front month with support at $173.50 and nearby resistance at $180 then the April 1st high at $181.12. May feeders nearby support at $243 then $239.40 with resistance at $251.30 then the $260 area. June lean hogs are not the front month, but May has little volume trading. June hit a new contract high on April 10th at $109.65, already above the 2023 highs, then reversed lower and found support around $101 and has been chopping in that range since.
Grains continue to be led higher by the wheat markets, especially KC Wheat on Friday. KC wheat futures hitting new 4-month highs on Friday as both Chicago and MPLS hit new 3-month highs. The warm and dry conditions continue in SC and SW KS down into West TX with most missing out on recent rains and little to no chances in the nearby forecasts. Couple this with weather concerns across Europe and Russia and world wheat, specifically the major exporting countries, are looking at decreased wheat production estimates this summer, yet still larger than a year ago. Corn and beans mustered small gains for the week but really continue to chop sideways as planting pace is ahead of normal. The heavy rains over the weekend will certainly be a delay but not a serious impact or concern for the markets as we are still in April.
Weekly closes in the grains…May Corn +$.06 ½, July +$.07, December +$.07 ¼, May Soybeans +$.09, July +$.11 ½, November +$.13 ¾, May Chicago Wheat +$.53, July +$.55 ½, September +$.57 ¾, May KC Wheat +$.64 ¾, July +$.71 ¼, September +$.72 ¼, May MPLS Wheat +$.50 ¼, July +$.51, September +$.48, May Soybean Meal -$3.7/T, July +$1.5.
Grains were mixed overnight and traded both sides of unchanged. Corn finished steady, soybeans 3 to 4 higher and wheat 4 lower to 4 higher. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ lower and energies lower with crude oil down $.60/barrel. USDA will release weekly export inspections late this morning and Crop Progress and Conditions later this afternoon.
New daily limits will kick in for the grains on Wednesday. For both Chicago and KC wheat daily limits will be lowered from their current $.50/bu each day down to $.40/bu. For corn daily limits will be lowered from their current $.35/bu per day down to $.30/bu. And for soybeans, daily limits will be lowered from their current $.95/bu each day down to $.85/bu. This is the first of two price limit resets for this year.
South American weather showing heavy rains in Brazil this week that could threaten soybeans ready to harvest while Argentina looking at a possible frost/freeze in the far south but otherwise supportive for crop maturing and harvest. Heavy rains swept through the eastern half of the Southern Plains and into the Corn Belt over the weekend with another round coming midweek and then over the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook shows well above normal temps for all except the West Coast and normal to above normal moisture expect in the Southwest and portions of the ECB into the Great Lakes.
First notice day for May grain futures is tomorrow, no daily limits and volumes will be getting thin until expiration. May corn finally taking out the long-term lower trend with resistance still holding at $4.44 then at $4.48 and strong support at $4.33 then $4.24. May soybeans contract low on February 29th at $11.28 ½ and with a couple pennies of that two weeks ago with resistance holding around $11.80. May Chicago wheat back above the $6 level for the first time since early February and a new recent high last Friday at $6.14 ½ with resistance next at $6.20 and nearby support at $5.60. May KC wheat breaking through $6.50 for the first time since December with resistance next at $6.80 and support at $5.80. May MPLS wheat up to the early February highs with resistance being tested around the $7 level and support at $6.50. May soybean meal trending higher with resistance at $355 and support at $335.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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