Date: April 15, 2024
Livestock futures all in the red last Friday with nearby contracts steady to higher week over week but all deferred contracts finishing lower for the week. Lean hogs hit new highs midweek as cattle hit new recent lows again on Friday. Inflation continues to keep some pressure on the markets along with the spread of Bovine Influenza A in U.S dairies. Beef and pork prices continued higher for the week, but cash prices pulled back some. Cash feedlot trade dropping another $2 to $4 with TX and KS trade at $182 live and trade in NE and IA $184 to $185 live and $293 to $295 dressed.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…April Live Cattle +$.65, June -$.57, April Feeder Cattle -$.10, May -$3.97, August -$3.12, April Lean Hogs +$1.55, June -$5.82. Choice Boxed Beef +$3.40 at $300.57 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$3.45 at $101.20.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/7/2024 – 4/13/2024
Compared to last week: Feeder Steers and heifers 2.00-5.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves 6.00-9.00 lower. Demand moderate.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 603,000 head, down 10,000 from the week previous and down 8,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 509.8 million pounds last week with year to date down 3.3% vs. last year and year to date slaughter down 5.1%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,485,000 head, up 64,000 compared to a week ago and up 58,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 534.6 million pounds with year to date remaining up 0.2% compared to a year ago and year to date slaughter up 0.7%.
Boxed beef cutout values last Friday higher on moderate demand with 106 loads sold.
Choice +2.20 @ 300.57, Select +.39 @ 295.54
CME Feeder Cattle Index 244.57
CME Lean Hog Index 90.56
Pork Carcass Cutout -.09 @ 101.20
April live cattle recent high back on March 14th and $190.27 and dropping to yet another new 3-month low last Friday at $176.50. The 10-day moving average has been providing the nearby resistance now at $180 with support next at $175. April feeders recent high back on February 26th at $260.80, down to a new 3-month low last Thursday at $235.90 with support next at $229 and nearby resistance at $243.70. June lean hogs are not the front month, but May has little volume trading. June hit a new contract high last week at $109.65, already above the 2023 highs, then reversed lower to finish out the week breaking a few support lines with the next now at $98.62 which is the recent low from March.
Grain finished out the week on a higher note and mixed for the week. USDA made some minor changes to the U.S. demand side on Thursday which were friendly for corn but bearish for both wheat and soybeans. The big question after the report remains to be the be the large gap between USDA and South American and private estimates especially in Brazil. USDA left production unchanged with corn at 124 MMT and soybeans at 155 MMT. This compares to Brazil’s CONAB at 111 MMT for corn and 146.5 MMT for soybeans. There are also some recent estimates for Argentina’s corn crop dropping due to rapidly expanding disease pressure with some estimates nearly 5 MMT lower than the current USDA estimate at 55 MMT.
Weekly closes in the grains…May Corn +$.01 ¼, New Crop December -$.00 ½, May Soybeans -$.11, New Crop November -$.08 ½, May Chicago Wheat -$.11 ¼, New Crop July -$.11, May KC Wheat +$.07 ½, July +$.07 ½, May MPLS Wheat -$.05 ¼, May Soybean Meal +$11.3/T.
Grains traded steady to lower overnight with corn finishing 2 lower, soybeans 4 to 5 lower and wheat 1 to 7 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ steady and energies lower with crude oil down $.70/barrel. South Korea purchased a couple cargoes of optional origin corn overnight, most likely to be shipped from South America. USDA announced a private sale of 165,000 MT or 6.5 MBU of corn for delivery to Mexico, split with 5.3 MBU old crop and 1.2 MBU new crop. USDA will release weekly export inspections late this morning and Crop Progress later this afternoon.
Scattered rains expected across the Corn Belt this week with freezing temps in the forecast by the end of the week dipping into KS. The latest 6-10 day outlook shows above normal temps for the western half of the country and below normal from the Southern Plains up into New England with above normal moisture only in the South and below normal from the West Coast and stretching across the entire northern half of the U.S.
May corn contract low on February 26th at $4.08 ¾. The long-term lower trend holding, tested the end of March with a new recent high at $4.48. Resistance next at $4.60 and nearby support at $4.24. May soybeans breaking the lower trend in mid-March, contract low on February 29th at $11.28 ½, a new recent high on March 21st at $12.26 ¾, resistance next at $12.33 and nearby support at $11.51. May Chicago wheat contract low on March 11th at $5.23 ½, trending higher since with resistance at $5.75. May KC wheat contract low on March 6th at $5.51 ½, holding a slightly higher trend with resistance at $6.05. May MPLS wheat down to a new contract low on April 3rd at $6.25 ¼ with resistance at $6.63. May soybean meal contract low on February 29th at $323.2 with resistance at $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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