Date: April 10, 2024
Cattle futures posted strong triple digit gains on Tuesday, most contracts higher for the second day in a row. New recent lows were hit last Friday after updates on more cases of Avian flu in U.S. dairies. No new news since which is good news, although the markets are still very cautious to add back the sharp losses over the past couple weeks. No cash feedlot trade yet this week but beef prices have firmed with Choice back above the $300 level. Lean hogs continue to make new highs supported by higher cash and pork values.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/8/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 6,619 Last Week: 5,431 Last Year: 8,248
Compared to last week feeder steers sold from 10.00-20.00 lower with the most loss on weights under 525 lbs. Feeder heifers sold from 8.00 -15.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaged $255 and 8 weights averaged $234.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/8/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 6,714 Last Week: 3,148 Last Year: 4,798
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 8.00-12.00 lower, some better quality type cattle mostly steady to 3.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves 10.00-15.00 lower. Demand moderate. 7 weight index steers averaged $244-$251 and 8 weights averaged $222-$235.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/8/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 3,780 Last Week: 2,999 Last Year: 2,495
Compared to the sale last week: Limited number of light steers last week for comparison. Steers 800-850 lbs were sharply lower, 900 lb steers 9.00 lower, 950 lb steers 3.00 lower. Heifers 600 lbs 13.00 lower, 650-700 lbs steady to 2.00 lower, 750 lbs sharply lower, 800 lb heifers 9.00 lower. 8 weight index steers averaged $223-$246.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/9/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 3,548 Last Week: 1,518 Last Year: 2,153
Compared to last week, steers sold uneven as the calves under 500 lbs and the yearlings over 650 lbs sold mostly steady but the middle weight calves from 500-650 lbs lost the gains from last week and sold 5.00-15.00 lower on lighter demand and with more un-weaned and/or fleshy calves in the mix. Heifer sold steady to 5.00 higher except for calves weighing 450-550 lbs 5.00-10.00 lower with the same story as their brothers, more soft calves in the mix this week.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, up 5,000 from last week and up 987 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 480,000 head, down 9,000 compared to a week ago and down 2,784 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to lower on good demand with 146 loads sold.
Choice +.02 @ 302.09, Select -.37 @ 299.90
CME Feeder Cattle Index 245.83
CME Lean Hog Index 87.88
Pork Carcass Cutout +.38 @ 100.71
April live cattle recent high back on March 14th and $190.27 and dropping to a new 3-month low last Friday at $177.90. Nearby resistance at $182 then $186 and support next at $176. April feeders recent high on February 26th at $260.80, also down to a new 3-month low last Friday at $236.37 with support next at $229 and nearby resistance at $243.70 then $249. April lean hogs expire this Friday, up to a new high for the year yesterday at $90.67 and looking to test the contract high at $91.62. The June contract continues sharply higher with a new contract high again yesterday at $109.17, already above the 2023 highs, nearby support at $102.90.
All grains lower on Tuesday but still trading within the recent ranges. Soybeans down for the second day in a row and holding a two-week long lower trend. Corn and wheat futures continue to chop sideways, Chicago wheat still holding a slightly higher trend. There wasn’t a lot of influential news yesterday. USDA did report a private sale of 4.5 MBU of beans for unknown destinations. This is not likely to be switched to China though as U.S. values carry a steep premium to South American origins which should hold until this fall.
Grains mostly steady to higher overnight with corn finishing 1 to 2 higher, soybeans steady to 1 lower and wheat 5 to 12 higher. USDA reported another private sale this morning. This time it was new crop soybeans for unknown destinations totaling 254,000 MT or 9.3 MBU Outside markets have equities sharply lower, US$ higher and energies higher with crude oil up $.40/barrel. The big news this morning was the CPI accelerated at a faster than expected pace in March, pushing inflation higher and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold with interest rates.
The weekly EIA report will be out later today with expectations for reduced ethanol production but improved blender demand and exports which will most likely keep stocks nearly unchanged at record high levels.
USDA will update supply and demand on Thursday with little changes expected for domestic stocks. The average trade estimate for wheat ending stocks at 690 MBU vs. 673 MBU last month, soybean ending stocks at 317 MBU vs. 315 MBU and corn ending stocks at 2.102 BBU compared to 2.172 BBU in March. Lower corn and soybean production estimates are expected again for Brazil and only slight adjustments for Argentina.
Rains isolated to the eastern half of the U.S. for the balance of this week with the heaviest amounts still forecasted for the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps for the western third of the U.S. and above normal temps for the eastern half with below normal precipitation on the West Coast and above normal from the Mountain West through the Corn Belt.
May corn contract low on February 26th at $4.08 ¾. The long-term lower trend holding, tested the end of March with a new recent high at $4.48. Resistance next at $4.60 and nearby support at $4.24. May soybeans breaking the lower trend in mid-March, contract low on February 29th at $11.28 ½, a new recent high on March 21st at $12.26 ¾, resistance next at $12.33 and nearby support at $11.68. May Chicago wheat contract low on March 11th at $5.23 ½, trending higher since with resistance next around $5.90. May KC wheat contract low on March 6th at $5.51 ½ with resistance at $6.05. May MPLS wheat down to a new contract low last week at $6.25 ¼ with resistance at $6.77. May soybean meal contract low on February 29th at $323.2 with resistance at $339.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
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