Date: August 21, 2023
Livestock futures were all higher to finish out last week, but losses during the week were to much to overcome for weekly gains for cattle futures. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade again only light volume reported by Friday afternoon, yet last week’s trade was steady to $2 lower than the week previous. Trade in North reported at $185 to $188 live and $294 to $297 dressed with trade in South at $177 to $179 live. After the close, USDA released the August Cattle on Feed report. Cattle and calves on feed totaled 11.0 million head on August 1, 2023, down the expected 2% from the year previous. July Marketings totaled 1.73 million head, down the expected the 5% from last year. July Placements though were bullish at 1.62 million head, 8 percent below 2022 with the average trade estimates only looking for 5% lower.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…August Live Cattle -$1.85, October -$2.50, August Feeders -$2.17, September -$2.92, October Lean Hogs +$.80, December +$.00. Choice Boxed Beef +$13.50 at $316.11 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.91 at $106.17.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/13/2023 – 8/19/2023
Receipts: Current Week 31,039 Last Week 26,295 Last Year 29,445
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady. Steer calves under 500 lbs 3.00-8.00 lower; over 500 lbs 1.00-3.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 2.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for calves. Demand remains good for feeder cattle despite a week of mostly declining Feeder cattle futures.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 616,000 head, up 13,000 from the week previous but down 48,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 501 million pounds with year to date -5.0% vs. last year and slaughter -4.1%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,414,000 head, up 60,000 compared to the week previous and up 7,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 501.9 million pounds last week with year to date +0.3% vs. last year and slaughter +1.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate demand with 92 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.97 @ 316.11, Select Cutout +2.10 @ 288.36
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 244.04, Lean Hog Index @ 100.32
Pork Carcass Cutout @ 106.17
August live cattle long-term higher trend in jeopardy with the recent sell off over the past couple weeks. Nearby price support still at $176.80 then at $175 with resistance at $181.70 then the all-time spot high from July 20th at $182.97. August feeders choppy/rangebound trade for the past couple months. Nearby support taken out last week with the next at $242 and resistance at $250 then the contract and all-time spot high from July 12th at $251.30. October lean hogs pulling back to a new recent low last week at $77.75 from the August high up at $86.75.
Gains rallied on Friday but not enough to pull corn and wheat higher for the week. Soybeans rallied for the third day in row as the dog days of summer hit again. Well above normal temps and little to no moisture is expected over this next week across the major fall crop producing areas. I would say Corn Belt or Midwest typically, but this dome looks to set up from the Plains across to Ohio and into the Southeast. 100-degree highs and possible record highs this coming week across that entire area. Corn is near finished, but we could most certainly cut some yield this week. Soybeans are made or lost in the month of August and this second of the month’s weather looks brutal. U.S. ending stocks are already tight for soybeans and every 1 BPA yield decrease equates to 82 MBU less production. Wheat recovered to end the week on short covering as new lows were hit midweek. More drones from Ukraine were reported shot down on Russian territory as the war continues in both countries and multiple port locations.
Weekly closes in the grains… September Corn -$.05, December -$.05 ¾, September Soybeans +$.25 ½, November +$.45 ¾, September KC Wheat -$.02 ¼, December -$.05 ¼, September Chicago Wheat -$.13 ½, December -$.14 ¾, September MPLS Wheat -$.12 ¼, December -$.12 ½, September Soybean Meal -$6.4/T, December +$0.3/T.
Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans still the leader higher and wheat the leader lower. Fall crops continue to add some weather premium with the hot and dry conditions over the weekend and lasting the majority of this week. Soybeans finished the overnight 18 to 22 higher, wheat 5 to 9 lower and corn 2 to 3 higher. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ lower and energies higher with crude up $1/barrel. USDA announced a private sale of 111,770 MT or 4.4 MBU of new crop corn sold to Mexico and 159,350 MT or 5.9 MBU of soybeans sold for to delivery to unknown destinations.
The Pro Farmer fall crop tour begins today so many will be looking for their posts at each stop then daily wrap ups each evening. It certainly looks to be a mixed bag with many areas struggling throughout the year. It will also be interesting to see where soybeans are already giving up or soon to head backwards with this week’s heat.
The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the country except for some below normal temps in the Northeast that may creep into parts of the ECB with above normal moisture for the western half of the U.S. but below normal still parked right over Corn Belt.
December corn down to a new recent low last week at $4.73 ½ with resistance at $5.07 ½ then at $5.23. November soybeans gapping higher overnight and filling the gap lower move from late July. The next upside target is the July high at $14.35 with strong support right around the $13 level. September KC down to a new recent low last week at $7.30 ¼ with resistance at $7.75. September Chicago wheat hit a new contract low last week at $5.86 ¼ with resistance around $6.60. September MPLS wheat able to hold support at $7.84 with resistance at $8.36.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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