Date: April 19th, 2023
New contract highs for feeders on Tuesday but somewhat uneventful trading most of the day as live cattle did not make new highs and lean hogs did not make new lows. No cash fed cattle trade to report so far this this week, but expectations are for higher prices yet again. Beef demand remains very strong and slaughter has not slowed down. Cattle on feed report coming this Friday after the close, again looking for another bullish report, but trading ahead these monthly reports seem to run cautions at times. The average trade estimate for April 1st Cattle on Feed is 95% of a year ago with March Placements projected at 96% and Marketings at 99%.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/17/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,360 Last Week: 8,248 Last Year: 4,088
Compared to last week feeder steers under 450 lbs. sold 3.00-6.00 lower with heavier weights 2.00-4.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to 4.00 higher. Volume of feeder cattle this week was over double last years. 7 weight index steers averaged $205 to $210 and 8 weights averaged $196.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/18/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,602 Last Week: 2,883 Last Year: 1,992
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold steady to 4.00 higher.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/17/2023 – Final
This Week: 9,023 Last Week: 4,798 Last Year: 5,357
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Demand continues good for feeder cattle. Steer calves 3.00-8.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 5.00 higher. Demand very good for calves. The spread between steer and heifer calves is getting much closer. Wheat pasture is maturing with some pastures showing signs of heading out. 7 weight index steers averaged $199.50 to $210 and 8 weights averaged $188 to $194.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/17/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,903 Last Week: 2,495 Last Year: 1,856
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher, with instances of 21.00. Feeder heifers 2.00 to 5.00 higher, with instances of 12.00. Demand for this eye appealing offering of cattle was good, light cattle were a little less active this week vs last. 7 weight index steers averaged $220 to $240 and 8 weights averaged $199 to $212.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 128,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 484,000 head, down 1,000 compared to a week ago but up 1,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on good demand with 124 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__307.06 +1.08
Select Cutout__291.61 +2.29
CME Feeder Cattle Index__206.37 +.73
CME Lean Hog Index__71.64 +.12
Pork Carcass Cutout __78.93 +1.32
April live cattle hit a new contract high and all-time spot month high last Thursday at $177.70. April is up over $17 since March 22nd, with 2 gaps on the way up, and strong technical support all the way down at $167.50. The contract is now in delivery and will continue to be supported by the sharply higher cash trade the past few weeks. April feeders up to a new contract high yesterday at $206.10. April has rallied nearly $22 in the past 3 months with the next upside target at $216, the all-time spot high quite a bit further away at $245.20 and support down at $197.60. June lean hogs contract low hit last Thursday at $85.42 with support next down at $71.50, the April contract low, resistance right at the $90 level.
Grains traded both sides of unchanged throughout the session on Tuesday with corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat finishing higher but KC and MPLS wheat lower. May corn holding the higher trend now for over a month a back to test resistance levels from February and March tops ranging from $6.80 to $6.86. Early support for the grains came from China reporting first quarter GDP up 4.5% from a year ago and unemployment at 5.3% in March, both better than expected. Brazil soybean harvest nearing 90% complete as the Argentine crop production estimates continue to be reduced. International soybean meal trade could be much more of deciding factor for all the balance sheets this crop year as Argentina as long been the #1 meal exporter. All estimates now have Brazil taking that spot but China announced last week plans to reduce meal in feed rations. Wheat futures remain the most volatile keeping one eye on the U.S. Southern Plains weather and the other on the Black Sea shipping issues. Inspections are back up and running after supposedly shut down for a few days. Some European countries are banning grain imports from Ukraine as they have flooded the markets this past year in Poland, Romania, and others. Negotiations are ongoing to still allow transit through those countries though.
Grains all lower overnight after failing to break through technical resistance levels yesterday. Outside markets not supportive either with equities lower, US$ higher and energies lower. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 5 lower, soybeans 3 to 7 lower and wheat the leader lower, down 8 to 14.
Rains over this next week from the Gulf up to the Great Lakes, scattered for the entire eastern half of the U.S. with heavy rains for the Southeast. The more important story is the much below normal temps this weekend from across Eastern KS into the ECB. The 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal temps for the eastern 2/3 of the country and above normal in the Southwest with above normal moisture from the Northern Plains down into the Southeast and below normal on the West Coast.
May corn up to a new recent high yesterday at $6.82 ½ with resistance again up to $6.86 and nearby support at $6.50. December still holding the long-term lower trend with support around $5.50 and resistance at $5.76. May soybeans have nearby support at $14.80 and resistance at $15.27. The November contract has nearby support at $12.95 and resistance around $13.40. May KC wheat has support holding at $8.40 and resistance around the $9 level. May Chicago wheat holding the long-term lower trend with support at $6.54 and resistance at $7.24. May MPLS wheat has support at $8.47 and resistance at $9.13. May soybean meal has support around $440 and resistance at $470 with the contract high hit last month at $498.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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