Date: January 31st, 2023
Cattle futures especially live cattle, supported yesterday by bitter cold temps throughout the Plains and expectations for a friendly Cattle Inventory report later today. Expectations for this afternoon’s report are looking for a total of 3-4% less than a year ago. Feeders held small gains as lean hogs were mixed. Cattle slaughter volume was higher last week and packer inventories should be fairly tight this week and moving forward.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 01/28/2023
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 202,400 42,200 9,200 253,800
Last Week: 267,000 25,700 147,200 439,900
Year Ago: 251,300 16,700 31,000 299,000
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was moderate to good on a much lighter auction receipts than two weeks ago, nearly half as many. The weather was quieter this week and helped to add support to the feeder market as some auctions had special offerings. In addition, there weren’t the consignment cancellations that were seen the previous week in the Plains.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/30/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,961 Last Week: 2,795 Last Year: 9,006
The weather was cold and the market was hot. Icy roads with snow and sleet in the area caused the supply to be light. Compared to last week feeder steers traded 6.00-10.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to 4.00 higher. Demand was very good. 7 weight index steers averaged $181-$186 and 8 weight index steers averaged $176-$178.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/30/2023 – Prelim
This Week: 2,750 Last Week: 9,035 Last Year: 11,125
Compared to last week: A winter storm moved in over the weekend dropping temps into the teens and 20’s and Monday dropped sleet across parts of the state with more to come. This has hampered livestock movement and reduced receipts. Feeder steers and heifers not well tested, however few sales steady to 2.00 higher. Steer calves lightly tested and steady to 3.00 higher. Heifer calves lightly tested and under 500 lbs. 8.00-10.00 higher; over 500 lbs. sold 3.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for all classes. 7 weight index steers averaged $173-$183 and 8 weight index steers averaged $176-$177.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/30/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,011 Last Week: 6,015 Last Year: 4,184
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 649 lbs and under steady to 3.00 higher, 650 lbs and higher steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers 400 lbs to 450 lbs 3.00 to 4.00 higher, anything over 450 lbs steady to 4.00 lower. Demand for this light offering of eye appealing feeder steers and heifers was moderate to good. 7 weight index steers averaged $179-$184 and 8 weight index steers averaged $168-$175.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 126,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 7,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 491,000 head, up 2,000 compared to a week ago and up 14,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday higher on weak demand with only 71 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__268.10 +.34
Select Cutout__251.52 +.98
CME Feeder Cattle Index__179.88 +.31
CME Lean Hog Index__72.21 -.43
Pork Carcass Cutout __80.28 +1.03
February live cattle holding the long-term higher trend with the contract high at $159.17 back on December 29th and support at $156.50 then the January low at $155.37. March feeders took out the 4-month long higher trend a couple weeks ago with a new recent low at $179.17. Nearby support now at $182.50 and nearby resistance at $185.77 with the January high up at $188.75. February lean hogs continue to drift lower with a new recent low again yesterday at $75.07 and resistance around $80.
Grains all higher to begin the week led by soy complex. Argentina forecast again dry prompting some fresh buying of both meal and beans yesterday. KC Wheat rallying the past 5 days and breaking through the long term lower trend. Winter wheat crop conditions through the end of January released yesterday afternoon with some improvement for the Southern Plains. Kansas wheat conditions were rated 21% G&E, the same rating as late November which was the worst in history, and 47% P&VP, compared to 19% G&E and 49% P&VP last month and 30% G&E and 31% P&VP this time last year.
Export inspections for the week ending January 26th were again very good for soybeans at 68.2 MBU. China remains the #1 destination taking 51.8 MBU or 76% of the total. Corn inspections slipped a little bit to 20.8 MBU. The top 3 destinations were Mexico, China and Japan. Wheat inspections actually above the average needed at 16.4 MBU. The top 3 destinations were Japan, Mexico and Thailand.
Grains lower overnight with corn and soybeans quiet and trading within Monday’s range, wheat the leader lower. Outside markets have equities steady to higher, US$ steady and energies a little weaker so far this morning. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 3 lower, soybeans 5 to 9 lower and wheat 8 to 13 lower.
Much below normal temps moving into the Great Lakes and Northeast with heavy rains for the Southeast later this week. The 6–10-day outlook showing above normal temps for the eastern half of the U.S. with below normal temps out West and normal to above normal moisture across most of the country, most of the above normal located across the Southern Plains and Southeast.
March corn still rangebound but showing a higher trend this month with nearby support around $6.50 and resistance at the January high at $6.88 ¾. March soybeans holding the long-term higher trend with the January high at $15.48 ½, the contract high from June at $15.72 ¼ and support at $14.78. March KC wheat again breaking the lower trend going back to mid-October with support at $8.11 and resistance $8.94. March Chicago wheat still holding a lower trend with a new low last Monday at $7.12 ½ and resistance at $7.62. March MPLS wheat trying to take out the lower trend with support at $8.85 and resistance at $9.28. March soybean meal hit a new contract high yesterday at $490.30 with the spot high from August the next upside target at $531.20 and support down around $470.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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