Date: July 18th, 2022
Livestock futures backed off to end last week but still finished higher week over week. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the South mostly steady compared to the week previous at $137 live. North live trade steady to lower at $144 to $145 while dressed trade done mostly at $230 which is $2 lower than the week previous. Feeders will be the ones to watch this week as we have shifted prices higher into a new trading range. Lean hogs remain range bound and without higher cash trade this week, so will live cattle.
For the week, Friday July 8th through Friday July 15th, August Live Cattle +$.97, October +$.60, August Feeder Cattle +$4.62, September +$4.95, July Lean Hogs +$2.05, August +$.65. Boxed Beef, Choice +$1.02 @ $268.91, Select -$.06 @ $241.79, Pork Carcass Cutout +$7.65 @ $122.18.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/10/22-7/16/22
Current Week: 40,529 Last Report 7/4/22: 7,091 Last Year: 28,673
Compared to the last full test two weeks ago: Feeder steers and heifers 2.00-5.00 higher. Steer calves 1.00-5.00 lower. Heifer calves 1.00-4.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle with best demand on heavier weights. It seems buyers would rather invest in the weight than the gains. Demand moderate for calves as hot dry weather is limiting outlets for calves.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 677,000 head, up 84,000 from the week previous and up 27,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 546.9 million pounds with year to date beef production now up 1.0% and cattle slaughter up to 1.2% ahead of last year.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,255,000 head, up 284,000 compared to the week previous but down 33,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 481.4 million pounds with year to date pork production now down 3.2% compared to a year ago and slaughter down 3.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate to weak demand with 82 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__268.91 +1.16
Select Cutout__241.79 -.12
CME Feeder Cattle Index__172.62 -1.43
CME Lean Hog Index__114.15 +.76
Pork Carcass Cutout __122.18 +3.67
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__117.99 -1.46, 5,525 head
August live cattle tested resistance up at $137.40 last week with the next at $138. Friday’s close at $135.65 is right at the 20-day moving average with support next down around $133. August feeders breaking nearby resistance and trading above $180 for the first time since March with resistance next up at $182 and support at $174.30. August lean hogs stuck in a range the past couple months with resistance at $111.75 and support at $102.
Grains actually did gap higher to begin last week on hot and dry U.S. forecasts, but that didn’t even last a full trading day. All grains closed out the week lower and wheat was the leader lower week over week. The US$ continued to rally providing pressure to U.S. export potential. Weather this past week was hot but actually came with some needed moisture. USDA updated supply and demand numbers last week which was a bit bearish but markets had a heavy sell off after the confirming data was released. NOPA June soybean crush out on Friday was just slightly above expectations at 164.677 MBU but below the May total of 171.08 MBU.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report for the week ending July 12th showed managed money or funds aggressive sellers of the grains. They sold 21.7k corn contracts (net long 151.1k), sold 6.4k Chicago wheat (net short 6.4k), sold 5.6k KC Wheat (net long 16.3k) and sold 9.3k soybeans (net long 95.7k).
For the week, Friday July 8th through Friday July 15th, September Corn -$.29, December -$.19 ¾, August Soybeans -$.47 ¼, November -$.54 ¼, September KC Wheat -$1.08 ¼, December -$1.08 ¼, September Chicago Wheat -$.1.14 ¾, December -$1.12 ½, September MPLS Wheat -$.85, December -$.83 ¾, August Soybean Meal -$.30/T, October -$11.30/T.
Grains started the overnight quietly firmer but continued to rally throughout the night and jumping higher around 6 this morning. Weather looks to the main driver so far today as hot and dry nearby and extended U.S. forecasts are the main topic. Outside markets also supportive with equites and energies higher and the US$ lower. Corn finished the overnight 10 higher, soybeans 28 to 33 higher and wheat 16 to 23 higher.
Excessive heat with no rain this week for the Plains and WCB but there are some scattered rain chances around the Great Lakes and ECB. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts show much above normal temps for the entire country and below normal moisture from the PNW down into the Plains and the majority of the Corn Belt, above normal moisture only in a small pocket in the Southwest and Northeast.
September corn has support down at $5.82, the low from July 6th, and resistance at $6.67, last Monday’s high. The December contract traded from a high of $6.58 ½ down to $5.76 ¾ last week. August soybeans holding a month long lower trend with support down at $14.44 ¾ and resistance at $15.52 ¾. November soybeans with support at $13.15 ¾ and resistance at $14.38 ½. September KC Wheat down to a new 5-month low on Friday at $8.20 with resistance right around the $10 level. September Chicago wheat also a new 5-month low at $7.65 ¾ with resistance around $9.50. September MPLS wheat has support around $8.90 and resistance at $10.50. August soybean meal actually holding a higher trend with support at $410, a new 2-month high last week at $448.10 and resistance next up at $457.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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