Date: May 9th, 2022
Livestock futures mixed on Friday, mostly higher for the week for cattle futures and lower for hogs. African swine fever still spreading across Europe and most recently found in Rome. Beef prices continue to fade lower as consumer demand is lacking for what is still high-priced beef as we head into the prime summer grilling season. Cash feedlot trade mostly steady again this past week at $140 live in South, although late week trades reported down to $138. In the North, live trade from $140 to $146 and dressed trade done mostly at $232.
For the week, Friday April 29th through Friday May 6th, June Live Cattle +$.10, August + $.07, May Feeder Cattle +$3.20, August +$6.42, June Lean Hogs -$2.27, July -$2.97. Boxed Beef, Choice -$6.34 @ $254.44, Select -$2.91 @ $245.06, Pork Carcass Cutout +$.12 @ $104.70.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/1/2022 – 5/7/2022
Current Week: 27,817 Last Report 4/25/22: 28,643 Last Year: 23,580
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold 1.00-3.00 higher with mostly good demand to close the week. Steer calves sold 3.00- 6.00 lower. Heifer calves 1.00-4.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 121,000 head and Saturday 49,000 head. For the week, 657,000 head, up 8,000 from the week previous and up 18,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 545.5 million pounds with the year to date difference remaining at +0.8% vs. last year and year to date slaughter +0.5%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 457,000 head and Saturday 48,000 head. For the week, 2,427,000 head, up 38,000 compared to the week previous and up 31,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 529.9 million pounds with year to date pork production improving to -5.1% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter -5.4%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on moderate to weak demand with 80 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__254.44 -.74
Select Cutout__245.06 -.75
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.60 +.01
CME Lean Hog Index__100.91 -.05
Pork Carcass Cutout __104.70 -1.57
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__101.98 -1.59, 6,783 head
June live still carrying a steep discount to cash. Friday’s low again near the support and lows from last month around $132.50 with support next down at the March low at $130.97 and resistance at $136.30. May feeders still holding a nearly 3-month long lower trend with support at $156.22 then the contract low from last May down at $153 and resistance at $162.85. June lean hogs finding support last week at $101.87 with nearby resistance at $107.50 then up around $112.
Corn and soybeans on the defensive most of the week as wheat was sharply higher for the week. Weather seemed to be primary impact this past week as extended forecasts were showing planting progress to continue this week in earnest. I would not expect to see much progress in this afternoon’s USDA report though. Heat waves in India and now in Europe already trimming wheat production potential. US Southern Plains had some decent rains last week, but excessive heat is around the first few days of this week. Today could also be interesting as Russia has been talking about parades and declarations as May 9th is their Victory Day Holiday.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report showed managed fund money as sellers across the grains for a second consecutive week. For the trade week ending 5/3, they -7.1k corn (net long 353.5k), -3.2k Chicago wheat (net long 10.9k), -5.4k KC wheat (net long 39.9k), -20.2k soybeans (net long 153.2k).
For the week, Friday April 29th through Friday May 6th, July Corn -$.28 ¾, December -$.30 ½, July Soybeans -$.62 ¾, November -$.44, July KC Wheat +$.64 ¾, September +$.64 ¾, July Chicago Wheat +$.52 ¾, September +$.51 ½, July MPLS Wheat +$.42 ¾, September +$.53, July Soybean Meal -$18.70, October -$10.50.
Corn and soybeans again under pressure overnight as wheat continues to push higher. Same stories heading into this week with U.S. weather clearing which should allow for some aggressive planting, India wheat crop continues to be trimmed and of course the war is still on in Ukraine. Equites lower this morning along with energies. Corn finished the overnight 7 to 10 lower, soybeans 13 to 18 lower and wheat 8 to 18 higher.
South Korea purchased a cargo of South American origin corn overnight. No daily sales announced by USDA this morning. Ukraine’s Ag Minister estimated 7 million hectares, over 17 million acres of spring crops has been planted so far, still running 25% to 30% behind a year ago.
This week’s weather calling for excessive heat across most of the Southern Plains and stretching into parts of the Southeast and WCB. Some light precip could be present this week but the only heavy amounts forecasted for the Northern Border States. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps across the country with above normal moisture in the eastern quarter and below normal moisture for the western half. The international forecasts for most of Europe and central Brazil still calling for above normal temps and below normal moisture.
July corn a new recent low overnight at $7.71 ¼ with support next at $7.40 and the contract high from April 29th at $8.24 ½. The December contract also hit another new contract high on April 29th at $7.57, also a new recent low overnight at $7.06 ¾ with support at $7.00. July soybeans holding a lower trend since April 22nd with support at $16.00 and resistance up at $16.67. The November contract still holding a long term higher trend with support at $14.50 and resistance at $15.00. July KC Wheat back testing resistance just above the $12 level with support down at $10.90. July Chicago wheat has support around $10.40 with resistance at $11.43. July MPLS wheat a new contract high overnight at $12.34 ¾ with support at $11.54. July Soybean Meal into new 4-month lows overnight with support next around $385 and resistance at $435.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336