Date: March 14th, 2022
The wild swings in the markets continued last week but more so to the downside as wheat futures were sharply lower yet fall crops were able to maintain week over week gains and livestock futures showed decent gains to end the week. Lean hogs were the leader higher on Friday with the June contract able to post new recent highs for March. Beef prices were able to stabilize last week. Slaughter started the week topping what has been the daily max recently of 125K a few times but levels backed off to end the week. Cash fed cattle trade another $2 to $4 lower again last week at $138 live and $219 to $222 dressed.
For the week, Friday March 4th through Friday March 11th, April Live Cattle +$1.52, June +$.42, March Feeder Cattle +$.15, April +$.72, April Lean Hogs +$2.27, June +$6.42. Boxed Beef, Choice +$.38 @ $254.71, Select +$.70 @ $249.11, Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.44 @ $102.55.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/6/2022 – 3/12/2022
Current Week: 36,338 Last Report 2/28/22: 33,559 Last Year: 49,148
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 1.00-3.00 lower. Feeder heifers 2.00-4.00 lower. Steer calves 3.00-5.00 lower with light weights up to 15.00 lower. Heifer calves 5.00-10.00 lower. Demand light to moderate for all classes. Fuel prices dominated talks all week. Demand took a big hit as delivery prices soared due to fuel costs. Cattle futures also fell sharply due to fuel prices as well as higher grain prices.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 111,000 head and Saturday only 34,000 head. For the week, 644,000 head, down 10,000 from the week previous and down 5,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 540.7 million pounds with the year to date difference unchanged from the week previous, -0.2% vs. last year and year to date slaughter -0.3%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 476,000 head and Saturday at 97,000 head. For the week, 2,475,000 head, up 56,000 compared to the week previous but down 108,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 540.1 million pounds with year to date pork production and hog slaughter now -7.5% compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate demand with 97 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__254.71 +.77
Select Cutout__249.11 +1.74
CME Feeder Cattle Index__152.56 -.50
CME Lean Hog Index__100.76 +.85
Pork Carcass Cutout __102.55 -1.65
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 101.57 -4.26
April live cattle still holding a sharply lower trend with the contract high from February 10th at $148.45 to a new 6-month low March 4th at $133.50. Nearby resistance at $140 with nearby support at $136. March feeders also on a free fall, down $19 from February 15th to the new recent low March 4th at $150.17. Nearby resistance is at $156. Deferred contracts doing a little better but still holding the lower trend. April lean hogs broke the 2-month long higher trend this month with support holding so far around the $100 level, nearby resistance around $104 and the contact high at $112.85.
The week finished with grains mostly higher, again after wheat was the leader lower. The expiring March Chicago wheat contract actually hit a new all-time spot high last week at $14.25 ¼. USDA updated supply and demand estimates midweek. U.S. corn and soybeans stocks were decreased due to increases in exports. Most of that can be attributed to the smaller production estimates in South America. USDA did cut export estimates though for Russia and Ukraine as Black Sea ports remain closed.
For the week, Friday March 4th through Friday March 11th, May Corn +$.08 ¼, July +$.07 ½, December +$.25 ¾, May Soybeans +$.15 ½, July +$.18 ¼, November +$.40 ¾, May KC Wheat -$1.25 ¼, July -$.93 ½, September -$.47 ½, May Chicago Wheat -$1.02 ½, July -$98, May MPLS Wheat -$.76 ¾, September -$.32 ¼, May Soybean Meal +$16.70, October +$16.30.
Grains started the overnight higher, but wheat markets again led the grains lower. The headlines grabbing the markets attention this morning are another round of talks between Russia and Ukraine hopefully leading to a ceasefire soon. Corn finished 3 to 10 lower, soybeans steady to 5 lower and wheat 19 to 35 lower. Equites pointing higher this morning as energies, gold and US$ lower.
Russian exports are gradually resuming from the Black Sea. Argentina has halted registration of export sales of soybean meal and oil, the top world exporter of both products. USDA reported a private sale of 159,000 MT or 6.3 MBU of corn sold Mexico.
U.S. weather this week back to spring like with midweek rain chances across the Corn Belt, maybe some light precip for the Southern Plains. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from the Plains to the East Coast with above normal moisture. Recent rains have helped stave off additional crop loss in South America but below normal moisture back in the forecast.
May corn new contract high on March 4th at $7.82 ¾ with nearby support at $7.30. The expiring March contract hit $8 on March 4th, the highest nearby price since September 2012. The December contract continues to trend higher with a new contract high overnight at $6.58 and nearby support around $6.30. May soybeans hit a new contract high back on February 24th at $17.59 ¼, closing in on the all-time nearby high from 2012 at $17.94 ¾. Support is down at $16.60 then $16.42. The November contract also hit a new contract high on the 24th at $15.55 but had been unable to top the $15 level since last night with support at $14.70 then $14.50. May KC wheat a new contract high on March 7th at $12.99 ½. The all-time spot high from 2008 up at $13.84 ¾. The July contract up to a new contract high $12.59 on March 7th with support at $10.27 then $9.87. May Chicago wheat a new contract high on March 8th at $13.63 ½ with the expiring March contract again up to $14.25 ¼, the new all-time spot high. The July contract hit a new contract high that day as well at $12.78 ¼ with support at $10 then $9.70. May Mpls wheat a new contract high on March 8th at $12.11 ¾ with support at $10.30. May Soybean Meal a new contract high overnight at $491.60. The expiring March contract up to $507.30, the highest spot price since June 2014 with the all-time spot high at $554.40 from September 2012.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700