Date: February 9th, 2022
Markets flipped on Tuesday with corn and soybeans pulling back some from Monday’s new highs and cattle futures posting gains. Lean hogs continue to soar higher as April forward contracts hit new contract highs again yesterday. Fats were in essence steady for the day as nearby feeders broke higher but deferred contracts only held small gains. Cash fed cattle trade steady so far this week on only light volume at $139 to $141 live and $222 to matching the top end last week at $224 dressed.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/7/2022
This Week: 1,830 Last Report 1/31: 11,125 Last Year: 7,200
Compared to last week: Receipts limited due to winter storm late last week. Much of the state seeing anywhere from 3-7 inches of snow. Much of this snow drifted due to high winds and unfortunately most of the snow landed in sidebars and ditches. Demand extremely good for the light run. Feeder steers and heifers 2.00-6.00 higher, instance 8.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves 5.00-10.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaging $160-$163 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $158-$161.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/7/2022
This Week: 2,239 Last Report 1/31: 9,006 Last Year: 2,928
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 4.00-7.00 higher with the most gain on weights under 550 lbs. Feeder heifers under 600 lbs. traded 6.00-12.00 higher. Weights over 600 lbs. traded steady to 2.00 higher. Supply light with very good demand.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/7/2022
This Week: 5,074 Last Report 12/31: 4,184 Last Year: 2,893
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 4.00 higher, except 350 lbs – 400 lbs, 450 lbs – 550 lbs, 650 lbs – 700 lbs 4.00 to 9.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 4.00 lower, except 400 lbs – 450lbs, 550 lbs – 600 lbs 8.00 to 10.00 higher, 650 lbs – 700 lbs, 800 lbs – 850 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 higher. Demand for this large offering of green cattle was good. 7 weight index steers averaging $166-$170 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $158-$161.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/8/2022
This Week: 1,776 Last Report 2/1: 2,583 Last Year: 3,450
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer’s under 700 lbs steady to 3.00 higher advance on 550 to 600 lbs, over 700 lbs steady to 1.00 higher. Heifer’s under 600 lbs steady to 2.00 higher 600 to 700 lbs steady to 8.00 higher advance on 600 to 650 lbs. over 700 lbs steady.
Miles City Livestock Commission Auction – Miles City, MT
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/8/2022
This Week: 1,175 Last Report 2/1: 2,057 Last Year: 519
Compared to last week: The best test for feeder steers was 650-699 lbs which sold mostly 5.00 higher. All other steer calves were too lightly tested either this week or last to develop an accurate market trend, steady to higher undertones were noticed. The best test for heifer calves was for 500-549 lbs which sold 3.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 472,000 head, down 8,000 compared to a week ago and down 18,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values continue to slide lower, moderate to strong demand on Tuesday with 180 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__277.46 -1.50
Select Cutout__273.84 -1.20
CME Feeder Cattle Index__161.43 +1.29
CME Lean Hog Index__86.62 +.75
Pork Carcass Cutout __97.29 -.90
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 82.51 +7.99 on only 6,045 head
February live cattle still holding a higher trend since testing support at $135.50 back on January 24th and hitting a new contract high yesterday at $142.42. Looking at a continuous weekly chart, this is the highest nearby price since September 2015 with the next upside target around $151. March feeders still very choppy, with new recent lows on January 24th at $158.22, resistance hit at $168 last week and the contract high from last August at $171.57. All contracts May forward made new contract highs last week and tested those levels again yesterday. February lean hogs sharply higher over the past month but set to expire next Monday with the contract high at $90.97 and support around $85. April forward continue to make new contract highs daily after breaking out of the range bound trading going back to last spring.
Corn and soybeans both tested or got within a few cents of the new highs scored on Monday but faded as the day progressed. New crop December corn actually rallied into the close to finish at a new contract high. South American forecasts now showing some modest rain possible the end of this week. Soybean oil the leader lower yesterday as all world veg oils pulled back sharply after new highs on Monday. Wheat futures turned higher, led by the MPLS spring wheat market, after Stats Canada released their end of December grain stocks with all wheat stocks well under expectations at 15.5 MMT compared to over 24 MMT a year ago.
Fall crops back showing some strength in the overnight as wheat was lower. New contract highs again for soybean meal and new crop corn and beans but gains faded into the morning pause. Soybeans finished the overnight 5 to 7 higher, meal $1 to $1.50/T higher, corn fractionally lower to 3 higher and wheat 3 to 4 lower. Equities pointing higher this morning, crude steady and US$ lower. USDA announced another new crop soybean sale to China this morning totaling 240,000 MT or 8.8 MBU.
USDA Supply and Demand Report today at 11 AM CST with the average trade estimates as follows…
U.S. Corn ending stocks at 1.512 BBU vs. 1.540 BBU in January
U.S. Soybean ending stocks at 310 MBU vs. 350 MBU in January
U.S. Wheat ending stocks at 629 MBU vs. 628 MBU in January
World Corn stocks at 300.3 MMT vs. 303.1 MMT in January
World Soybean stocks at 91.5 MMT vs. 95.2 MMT in January
World Wheat stocks at 279.9 MTM vs. 280.0 MMT in January
Brazil Corn production at 113.6 MMT vs. 115 MMT in January & 118 in December
Argentina Corn production at 52.2 MMT vs. 54 MMT in January & 54.5 in December
Brazil Soybean production at 133.7 MMT vs. 139 MMT in January & 144 in December
Argentina Soybean production at 44.5 MMT vs. 46.5 MMT in January & 49.5 in December
Forecasts calling for a chance of light precip heading into the weekend now. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps in the Plains and below normal for the eastern third of the country with above normal moisture now across most grain areas. Again, South American nearby forecasts now showing some modest rain possible the end of this week. Then a return to dry conditions for the already stressed southern Brazil and Argentina’s grain areas.
March corn contract high was last Monday at $6.42 ½ with support $6.10. These are the highest nearby prices since last summer when we hit $7.50 in July and up to $7.75 in May. December 2022 corn gapped higher on Monday with the new contract high overnight at $5.83. March soybeans contract high on Monday as well at $15.89 ½ with support at $15.26 then the $15 level. This is the highest nearby price since last June when the nearby contract got up to $16.23 ½ and $16.77 ¼ last May. November 2022 soybeans new contract high overnight at $14.29 ¾. March KC wheat still holding a lower trend the past 2+ months with the long term higher trend tested last week at $7.53 and resistance around $8.40. March Chicago wheat holding a lower channel trading pattern with support at $7.35 and resistance around $8.20. March MPLS wheat with support around $9 and resistance at $9.65. March Soybean Meal a new contract high overnight at $458.30 with support around $430.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700