Date: July 26th, 2021
Livestock futures finished the week higher. Negotiated cash feedlot trade last week steady to lower than the week previous with trade in the South from $117 to $119 live and in the North $121 to $122 live and $194 to $200 dressed. Total cattle inventory at 101 million head with beef cows down 2% at 31.4 million and calf crop at 35.1 million, down slightly from a year ago.
Cold Storage reported last week with total red meat supplies in freezers were down 4% from the previous month and down 8% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 4% from the previous month and down 7% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 4% from the previous month and down 4% from last year. Total frozen poultry supplies on June 30, 2021 were up 2% from the previous month but down 15% from a year ago.
Cattle on Feed report was friendly on Friday as well with 11.3 million head on feed as July 1, down 1% from a year ago and matching the expectations. Placements in June totaled 1.67 million head, down 7% from a year ago, down 5% from June 2019 and 3% less the pre report average trade estimate. Marketings totaled 2.02 million head, 3% more than a year ago and slightly higher than expectations.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/18/2021 – 7/24/2021
Current Week: 27,494 Last Week: 28,673 Last Year: 24,262
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 1.00-2.00 higher, except over 800 lbs 3.00-6.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Steer calves sold 1.00-5.00 lower. Heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for calves. More new crop or un-weaned calves beginning to make their way to the market.
For the week, Friday July 16th through Friday July 23rd, August Live Cattle +$1.32, October +$1.55, August Feeder Cattle +$4.45, September +$4.02, August Lean Hogs +$1.70, October +$1.87. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.31 @ $266.63, Select -$1.85 @ $249.94, Pork Carcass Cutout +$2.43 @ $122.37.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 114,000 head and Saturday at 71,000. For the week, 652,000 head, down 1,000 from the week previous but up 12,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 530.4 million pounds compared to 531.2 million the week previous and 533.7 million last year. Year to date beef production +4.8% compared to last year with slaughter +4.6%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 434,000 head and Saturday only 29,000. For the week, 2,332,000 head, up 52,000 compared to the week previous but down 244,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 488.7 million pounds compared to 479.1 the week previous and 543.4 million last year. Year to date pork production now -0.3% compared to a year ago with slaughter -0.6%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday steady to higher on good demand with 131 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__266.63 +.49
Select Cutout__249.94 +.17
CME Feeder Cattle Index__152.03 +.64
CME Lean Hog Index__112.21 -.04
Pork Carcass Cutout__122.37 +.06
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__107.28
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__104.59 -.72
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend but lower trend since the contract high on June 16th at $125.77 with nearby support around $119 and resistance at $122.40. August feeders trending higher since early May but very choppy with support at $157 and resistance at $161. August lean hogs holding a month long higher trend after the June collapse from the contract high at $120.55 to the recent low at $96.50 with nearby support right around the $100 level and resistance next around $110.
Grains were lower last Friday which pulled weekly changes lower as well. Some chatter this past week that demand may be pulling back for corn and soybeans, basis levels have been trending lower. Domestic crush plants have been processing less than earlier this year, but ethanol plants continue to grind with weekly volumes finally back to pre-COVID levels. China’s soy demand has backed off recently as well with hog margins declining and increased wheat feed usage.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed fund money through the week ending July 20th +14.5k corn (net long 223.3k), +19.8k Chicago wheat (net short -3.7k), +6k KC Wheat (net long 27.7k) and +13.1k soybeans (net long 95.8k).
For the week, Friday July 16th through Friday July 23rd, September Corn -$.08 ¾, December -$.09, August Soybeans -$.53 ¾, November -$.40, September KC Wheat -$.05 ½, December -$.04 ¾, September Chicago Wheat -$.08 ½, December -$.06 ¼, September MPLS Wheat -$.33 ¾, December -$.33 ¾, August Soybean Meal -$9.60/T, December -$10.00/T.
Grains continued under pressure overnight with corn finishing 4 to 5 lower, soybeans 10 to 13 lower and wheat 7 to 13 lower. Outside markets pointing lower as well to start this week. COVID concerns and another round of restrictions or lockdowns being talked about recently as rioting reported across Europe and Australia.
U.S. weather remains the main driver. Crop progress and conditions will be updated later this afternoon with the market looking for slight reductions in conditions. Scattered and light rains over the weekend for parts of SD, MN, NE, KS and MO through OH. Excessive heat from the PNW to the Northern Plains and south into the WCB the main weather factor this week with little to no rain. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for all except in the Southwest and Northeast and below normal moisture except in the West. The extended forecast are conflicting though with some calling for less heat and more moisture yet even the latest 8-14 day outlook, which covers August 2nd through August 8th, still showing hot and dry across all major growing areas.
September corn with support at $5.20 and resistance at $5.70. December corn breaking nearby support last week with the next down at the recent low earlier this month at $5.07 and resistance from $5.65 to $5.73. August soybeans still holding the nearby higher trend with support around $13.50 and resistance at $14.30. November soybeans with support around $13.10 and resistance at $13.70. September KC wheat with support at $6.29 and resistance around $6.70. September Chicago wheat with support around $6.50 and resistance around $7.20. September MPLS wheat a new contract high last week at $9.44 ½ with support at $8.60.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700