Date: July 19th, 2021
Cattle futures lower last Friday while lean hogs continue to rally. Germany announced two cases of African swine fever in domestic hog herds on Friday while over the weekend and third case was reported in the same region. Feeders were under pressure all week as grains were higher. Cash feedlot trade mostly wrapped up by midweek at steady yet again. Trade in the Southern Plains at $120 live and dressed trade in the WCB from $196 to $202. Live trades in NE though steady to $2 higher at $123. Beef continues the sharp decline in hopes to spur some additional demand.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/11/2021 – 7/17/2021
Current Week: 28,673 Last Week: 9,255 Last Year: 28,897
Compared to last week’s light test: Feeder steers and heifers 2.00-6.00 higher, instance to 8.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Steer calves sold 4.00-10.00 higher. Heifer calves 5.00-10.00 higher. Demand very good for calves. Slaughter cows sold 1.00-4.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 2.00 higher. Demand very good for cows and bulls.
For the week, Friday July 9th through Friday July 16th, August Live Cattle +$.95, October +$.02, August Feeder Cattle -$3.55, September -$3.32, August Lean Hogs +$4.07, October +$5.50. Boxed Beef, Choice -$10.65 @ $267.94, Select -$5.62 @ $251.79, Pork Carcass Cutout +$3.50 @ $119.94.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 118,000 head and Saturday at 56,000. For the week, 653,000 head, up 78,000 from the week previous and up 7,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 531.2 million pounds compared to 467.9 million the week previous and 535.5 million last year. Year to date beef production +5.0% compared to last year with slaughter +4.7%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 427,000 head and Saturday only 12,000. For the week, 2,280,000 head, up 357,000 compared to the week previous but down 237,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 479.1 million pounds compared to 406.7 the week previous and 533.3 million last year. Year to date pork production now only +0.1% compared to a year ago with slaughter -0.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday continued lower on good demand with 143 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__267.94 -1.93
Select Cutout__251.79 -.69
CME Feeder Cattle Index__151.39 -.96
CME Lean Hog Index__111.89 +.55
Pork Carcass Cutout__119.94 +.42
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__109.12
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__107.32 -3.44
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend with the contract high on June 16th at $125.77, support around $119 and resistance at $122.60. August feeders trending higher since early May but very choppy with support at $153.60 and resistance at $161. August lean hogs with nearby support right around the $100 level and resistance at $106.80.
Grains finished the week mixed but sharply higher week over week. Corn the only one unable to hold gains last Friday. MPLS wheat the leader higher for the week as rains continue to miss the Northern Plains. Forecasts also continue to remain hot and dry for the North and now spreading south and east.
For the week, Friday July 9th through Friday July 16th, September Corn +$.26 ½, December +$.35, August Soybeans +$.75 ½, November +$.62 ½, September KC Wheat +$.57 ½, December +$.57, September Chicago Wheat +$.77 ½, December +$.76, September MPLS Wheat +$1.03, December +$.98 ¼, August Soybean Meal +$9.10/T, December +$7.30/T.
All grains higher overnight with MPLS wheat continue to lead the charge. Corn finished the overnight 7 higher, soybeans 3 to 6 higher and wheat 7 to 10 higher for KC and Chicago and 1 to 17 higher in MPLS.
News fairly quiet over the weekend. U.S. weather remains the main driver. Crop progress and conditions will be updated later this afternoon. Corn nationwide should be 40% to 50% silking and conditions overall are expected to remain steady to even improve 1 point. Soybeans should be near 25% pod set and conditions also expected to be steady to slightly better than a week ago.
China’s June customs data shows corn imports at 3.75 MMT or 148 MBU, +305% from last June, year to date now at 14.3 MMT or 563 MBU. Grain sorghum imports during June at 1.1 MMT or 43 MBU, +61% compared to last June and year to date at 4.79 MMT or 189 MBU. Wheat imports for June though -17% from last year at 750,000 MT or 27.6 MBU with year to date at 5.37 MMT or 197 MBU.
Scattered and light rains over the weekend for parts of NE and KS, southern IL and IN with heavier amounts in the Southeast, East Coast and Northeast. Rains this week forecasted for the Southwest and Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps and below normal moisture for all except in the Southwest and New England.
September corn with support at $5.50 then $5.20 and resistance from $5.70 to $5.72 being tested the last four trading sessions. December corn with support at $5.50 as well and resistance next up around $6.00. August soybeans trending higher this past month with support at $14.00 and resistance around $15.15. November soybeans with support around $13.50 and resistance at $14.23. September KC wheat with support around $6.20 and resistance at $6.70. September Chicago wheat with support around $6.50, gapping higher overnight and taking out nearby resistance with the next at $7.23. September MPLS wheat a new contract high overnight at $9.44 ½ with the next upside target at $9.75.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700