Date: July 14th, 2021
Livestock futures mostly higher on Tuesday as both feeders and fats bounced off technical support levels. Beef prices finished the day lower again but heavy volume was traded on mixed prices throughout the day providing some support as well. Monday negotiated cash feedlot trade on light demand in the North but steady to $2 higher which is good to see at $125 live and $196 to $202 on a dressed basis. TX cash pool on Tuesday trading 528 head at $120, no comparison vs. last week with no sale due to Independence Day but $1 to $2 lower than the last half June sales. Some trade picking up in TX and KS reported late yesterday afternoon at $120 live which is steady to $1 higher than last week.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/12/2021
This Week: 8,859 Last Reported 6/28/21: 8,842 Last Year: 8,234
Compared to two weeks ago (06/28/2021): Feeder steers and Heifers 3.00-5.00 higher. Steer calves 1.00-2.00 higher. Heifer calves 3.00-5.00 higher. Demand good for all classes.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/12/2021
This Week: 6,764 Last Reported 6/28/21: 8,740 Last Year: 6,258
Compared to the Monday feeder sale two weeks ago, feeder steers traded 2.00 – 5.00 higher with the most gain on weights over 700 lbs. Feeder heifers under 600 lbs. traded steady, weights over 600 lbs. traded 2.00 – 4.00 higher. Supply moderate with good to very good demand.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/13/2021
This Week: 3,892 Last Week: 2,177 Last Year: 4,091
Compared to last week, steer calves under 750 lbs and heifer calves under 700 lbs traded 3.00-6.00 higher while heavier weight calves traded steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was good on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 464,000 head, down 2,000 compared to a week ago and down 5,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values continued lower on Tuesday but heavy demand with 178 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__273.34 -1.66
Select Cutout__256.74 -2.03
CME Feeder Cattle Index__152.99 -.83
CME Lean Hog Index__110.67 +.57
Pork Carcass Cutout__118.81 +1.08
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__116.11
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__112.30 +4.56
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend with the contract high on June 16th at $125.77, into a new recent low last week at $118.85 and back to testing nearby resistance yesterday around $122.50. August feeders also holding a higher trend with nearby resistance around $161, the contract high at $162.40 and support at $156.75. July lean hogs expire tomorrow looking to hold that $112 area. The August contract has nearby support right around the $100 level, hit a new high for the month just yesterday at $106.17 with resistance next at $107, a gap on the charts from $110.42 to $111.70 and the contract high back on June 7th at $120.55.
Grains mixed yesterday with fall crops higher but winter wheat futures lower. Russia’s SovEcon dropping wheat production estimates 2.3 MMT to 82.3, USDA on Monday dropped Russian wheat production 1 MMT to 85, some private numbers ranging from 77 to 80 MMT on early harvest reports in southern Russia lower than expected. MPLS wheat higher again yesterday with September into a new contract high but reversing off that to only finish a few cents higher which allowed both KC and Chicago wheat to trade and finish a few cents lower on the day. USDA cut over 200 MBU from spring and durum wheat production forecast but added 55 MBU to winter wheat estimates. Veg and oilseeds continue higher supporting the soy complex. Weather is a mixed bag with much anticipated rains this week but back to hot and dry for the Northern Plains and WCB to finish out July.
Grains traded mixed overnight but finished higher with corn 1 to 2 higher, soybeans 9 to 14 higher and wheat 5 to 9 higher.
Egypt tendering for wheat again today with the lowest offer coming from Romania at $262/MT or $7.14/BU delivered. The offer is at $231.88/MT or $6.31/BU at origin. For comparison and to show just how far U.S. wheat is over, bids at the Gulf for 11 pro HRW at $7.16/BU and 12 pro HRW $7.66/BU. Last week, Egypt purchased 240,000 MT or 8.8 MBU from Russia and Romania at an average of $269.83/MT or $7.33/BU. NOPA crush report out today with the average trade estimate at 159.5 MBU of soybeans crushed in June. This would compared to 163.52 MBU in May and down over 2% from a year ago.
Rains developed overnight in NE, now heading through eastern SD and western IA with the system expected to move through the drier areas of northern IA today. Heavy rains expected later this week across the entire Midwest and Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps and below normal moisture centered on the Northern Plains but also extending into the WCB with below normal temps and above normal moisture in the South.
Soybeans leading the charge higher at the open today with all grains into new recent highs and September MPLS wheat into a new contract high. Gaps filled for KC and Chicago wheat, November soybeans ¼ cent away with December corn still some work to do to reach $5.73 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700