Date: June 7th, 2021
Livestock futures finished the week mixed as cattle futures under pressure and lean hog futures continue to make new contract highs. Even though the volatility remains high for cattle futures, cash feedlot trade remains flat. The past 6 weeks live trades mostly $119 to $120 and dressed trade $190 to $191. JBS had operations back up running full by Thursday from the cyber attack the weekend prior but slaughter rates were down drastically early last week providing some of the pressure. Gran prices higher last week also hitting feeders.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/30/2021 – 6/5/2021
Current Week: 10,378 Last Week: 31,141 Last Year: 45,128
Compared to last week: This weeks weighted average consists of data from 4 feeder sales and 3 cow sales. Monday and some Tuesday auctions closed for the holiday. Other sales lightly tested due to the heavy rains that fell across the state earlier in the week. Feeder steers sold steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly steady. Steer calves sold unevenly steady. Heifer calves steady to 3.00 lower. Demand good for feeder cattle and calves. Slaughter cows 3.00 higher, except Lean cows 3.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 4.00-5.00 higher.
For the week, Friday May 28th through Friday June 4th, June Live Cattle +$.95, August -$.52, August Feeder Cattle -$1.42, September -$.77, June Lean Hogs +$2.25, July +$1.25, June Pork Carcass Cutout +$5.80. Boxed Beef, Choice +$8.01 @ $338.98, Select +$10.83 @ $311.73, Pork Carcass Cutout +$11.77 @ $132.63.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 119,000 head and Saturday at 98,000. For the week, 538,000 head, down 91,000 from the week previous and down 90,000 from last year. Beef production last week at 443 million pounds compared to 518 the week previous and 518.9 million last year. Year to date beef production +6.9% compared to last year with slaughter +5.8%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 478,000 head and Saturday at 196,000. For the week, 1,975,000 head, down 403,000 compared to the week previous and down 478,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 424.4 million pounds compared to 511.8 the week previous and 534.3 million last year. Year to date pork production +2.4% compared to a year ago with slaughter +1.8%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday lower on light to moderate demand with 97 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__338.98 -1.57
Select Cutout__311.73 -1.43
CME Feeder Cattle Index__137.50 +.85
CME Lean Hog Index__114.75 +.70
Pork Carcass Cutout__132.63 +1.11
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__114.77 +.59
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__109.40 +.95
June live cattle diving into a new low to start last week and gaining it all back by Wednesday yet still unable to break the $118 resistance with nearby support at $116. August feeders taking out the nearly month long higher trend with support next at $145 and resistance around $153. June lean hogs hitting a new contract high at $120.15 last Friday with support around $114, and the next upside target at $133.87, the all-time spot high from July 2014.
Grains sharply higher to end last week as additional weather premium being added in. The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest still in desperate need of moisture as the drought areas expanded this past week and new record high temps were set over the weekend in the Dakotas. Soybean oil into new highs supporting the entire soy complex as strong domestic biodiesel demand and international vegoil demand continue. MPLS wheat the leader over the past couple weeks and into new contract highs again on Friday.
For the week, Friday May 28th through Friday June 4th, July Corn +$.26, December +$.46, July Soybeans +$.53 ¼, November +$.62 ¾, July KC Wheat +$.23 ¼, September +$.23 ¼, July Chicago Wheat +$.24 ¼, September +$.25 ¼, July MPLS Wheat +$.85 ¼, September +$.82 ¼, July Soybean Meal +$.70/T, December +$.70/T.
All grains gapped higher overnight with hot and dry still in the forecast for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Corn finished the overnight 18 to 25 higher, soybeans 27 to 35 higher and wheat 11 to 18 higher.
New crop contracts leading the way for both corn and soybeans instead of the nearby July contracts as old crop basis levels fell sharply lower for soybeans these past few weeks and old crop corn basis is pulling back in many locations now as well. This is significant as it appears at least for the short term that old crop demand are met both domestically and for exports but the markets are still worried about new crop supplies.
No daily export sales announced this morning. USDA will release weekly export inspections later this morning and this afternoon crop progress and conditions.
This week showing some rain relief but continued hot temps in the Northern Plains. Heavy rains in the forecast in the Southeast into the ECB as well. The 6-10 day outlook continues to show above normal temps and below normal moisture for all major growing areas.
July corn gapping higher into a new recent high at $7.06 ¼ with the contract high the next resistance at $7.35 ¼ and support at $6.63. December corn also gapping into a new recent high overnight with the contract high the next resistance at $6.38 and support at $5.60. July soybeans with resistance at the contract high from May 12th at $16.67 ½ and support at $15.46. November soybeans gapping higher and hitting a new contract high overnight at $14.80 with support at $13.95. July KC wheat with support around $6.20 and resistance at $6.70. July Chicago wheat with support at $6.75 and resistance at $7.18. July MPLS wheat hitting a new contract high overnight at $8.43 ½ with support at $7.46. July soybean meal with support around $390 and resistance at $407.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700