Date: May 10th, 2021
Livestock futures mixed again to end last week, but this time with cattle futures able to hold gains and lean hogs triple digits lower. Corn took a breather for most of Friday which allowed cattle futures to catch a bid and rally back. Hogs have been sharply higher all week with Friday’s action just a little pullback heading into the weekend. Negotiated cash feedlot trade last week was overall steady to lower than the week previous. Trade began on Tuesday and wrapped up by Thursday at $117.50 to $119 live and $188 to $192 dressed.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/2/2021 – 5/8/2021
Current Week: 23,580 Last Report 4/26/21: 23,039 Last Year: 39,423
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 5.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves lightly tested and unevenly steady.
For the week, Friday April 30th through Friday May 7th, June Live Cattle -$.55, August +$.22, May Feeder Cattle -$1.87, August -$2.47, June Lean Hogs +$3.12, July +$4.30. May Pork Carcass Cutout Futures +$.90. Boxed Beef, Choice +$9.38 @ $305.88, Select +$7.22 @ $290.27, Pork Carcass Cutout +$3.33 @ $113.79.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 111,000 head and Saturday at 57,000. For the week, 638,000 head, down 11,000 from the week previous but up 162,000 from last year. Year to date slaughter now +4.8% compared to last year and beef production +6.2%. Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 462,000 head and Saturday at 15,000. For the week, 2,408,000 head, down 46,000 compared to the week previous but up 604,000 compared to a year ago. Year to date slaughter now +1.3% compared to a year ago and pork production +2.5%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday lower on Choice and higher on Select on very weak demand with only 64 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__305.88 -.49
Select Cutout__290.27 +.91
CME Feeder Cattle Index__130.83 -.73
CME Lean Hog Index__109.22 +.67
Pork Carcass Cutout__113.79 -.07
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__121.76
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__113.70 -2.72
June live cattle testing nearby resistance around $117.50 after hitting the recent low at $112.57 which is right at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level from the contract high to the contract low back in April 2020. May feeders hit a new recent low last week at $128.50 with support next the contract low down at $127 and resistance up around $140. June lean hogs still holding the long term higher trend with a new contract high last week at $115 and support around $107.
Grains continue to rally with most contracts hitting new contract highs again on Friday. Corn and wheat backed off midday while soybeans held gains and pushed higher pulling the others with it. New crop corn and soybeans the leaders last week as the market tries to push for additional acres to be planted. World edible oils continue to push higher with rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil both gapping higher on Friday and into new all-time highs. U.S. weather heading into last weekend was a mixed bag with cool and dry allowing planting in the Western Corn Belt, but some areas in need of some moisture, and heavy rains delaying planting in the Eastern Corn Belt and Southeast.
For the week, Friday April 30th through Friday May 7th, July Corn +$.59, December +$.72 ¾, July Soybeans +$.55 ½, November +$.93 ¾, July KC Wheat +$.33 ¼, September +$.33 ¼, July Chicago Wheat +$.27, September +$.30, July MPLS Wheat +$.33 ¾, September +$.34 ½, July Soybean Meal +$15.70/T, December +$18.50/T.
Overnight all grains opened lower and stayed mostly in the red. Rain coverage over the weekend was better than expected for the WCB and central IL through OH. The Dakotas still missing out. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 10 lower, soybeans 3 lower to 2 higher and wheat 10 to 15 lower.
News again light overnight. USDA reported a private sale of 1.02 MMT or 40.2 MBU of new crop corn sold to China but also a cancellation of 11 MBU of old crop corn. Crop progress and conditions will be updated later this afternoon. USDA will update supply and demand on Wednesday with most looking for a decreased ending stocks for both corn and soybeans for this marketing year and similar tight ending stocks projection for new crop. USDA will be using the March acreage, which we all feel has increased, but will not be adjusted until June.
Heavy rains still in the forecast for the Southeast this week with 1 inch in the forecast for the Southern Plains heading into this next weekend. Below normal temps for this week but the 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the U.S. with above normal moisture from the eastern half of KS fanning out to the Dakotas and Great Lakes with below normal in the Southwest and Southeast.
July corn hitting a new contract high last week at $7.35 ¼ with support at the 10-day moving average currently at $6.88 ½. December corn has held a sharply higher trend since March 31st, the prospective plantings report by USDA, adding $1.88 up to the contract high last week at $6.38 with support at $5.85 ½. July soybeans a new contract high last week at $15.99 ½ and support at $15.42 ½. November soybeans, like its counterpart December corn, holding the sharply higher trend since March 31st, adding $2.59 up to the contract high last week at $14.43 ¼ with support around $13.70. July KC wheat contract high last week at $7.41 ½ and support at $6.83. July Chicago wheat contract high two weeks ago at $7.69 ½ with support at $7.14. July MPLS wheat a new contract high last week at $8.07 ¼ with support at $7.67. July soybean meal with nearby support at $427, a new recent high at $443.4 last week and the contract high at $458.20 back on January 13th.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700