Date: February 8th, 2021
Livestock futures mixed on Friday but mostly higher for the week. Cash feedlot trade also higher with live trade mostly at $114, $1 to $2 higher than the week previous and dressed trade from $178 to $180, steady to $2 higher. Boxed beef prices though were mixed for the week yet packer margins are still solid and promote keeping the chainspeeds up.
For the week, Friday January 29th through Friday February 5th, February Live Cattle +$1.67, April +$1.92, January Feeder Cattle +$.55, March +$1.45, February Lean Hogs +$1.17, April +$3.65, February Pork Cutout Futures -$.07. Choice Cutout +$.63 @$234.58, Select Cutout – $1.91 @ $220.79, Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.18 @ $84.18.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 113,000 head and Saturday at 70,000 head. For the week, 653,000 head, matching the week previous and up 22,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 551.3 million pounds with year to date -2.4% and slaughter -5%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 477,000 head and Saturday at 291,000 head. For the week, 2,691,000 head, up 33,000 compared to the week previous and up 19,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 594.2 million pounds with year to date -2.9% and slaughter -5.4%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday steady to higher with 100 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__234.58 +.33
Select Cutout__220.79 +.35
CME Feeder Cattle Index__135.65 -.62
CME Lean Hog Index__69.27 +.18
Pork Carcass Cutout__84.18 -1.65
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__63.26
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__61.33
February live cattle still holding a higher trend with nearby support levels at $114.70 and $114 and resistance up at the January high at $117.62. March feeders with support at $136.50 and resistance around $140 then $141.85. February lean hogs hitting a new recent high last week at $73.25 with resistance next up at $74.50 and support at $69.
Grains were mixed on Friday and only the nearby March corn contract higher for the week. Export sales were confirmed this past week as the highest weekly total for corn in history at more than 7.4 MMT or 292.8 MBU. China purchased over 230 MBU of corn from the U.S. this past week. Shipments now need to pick up the pace. USDA will update supply and demand on Tuesday with most looking for bullish news. Corn stocks are expected to be reduced by 150 to 200 MBU again this month and soybean stocks down another 20 MBU to near pipeline supply.
US Census Bureau data estimated December US corn exports totaled 181.7 MBU of corn, 71.9 MBU of wheat and a record 398 MBU of soybeans. These figures exceed the USDA’s inspections for December by 17.8 MBU in corn and 30 MBU in soybeans.
For the week, Friday January 29th through Friday February 5th, March Corn +$.01 ½, May unchanged, March Soybeans -$.03 ¼, May -$.01 ¼, March KC Wheat -$.12 ¾, May -$.11 ½, March Chicago Wheat -$.21 ¾, May -$.16 ¾, March MPLS Wheat -$.07 ½, May -$.06 ¼, March Soybean Meal -$.50/T, May +$.40/T.
Overnight, grains were higher along with equites and energies. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 6 higher, soybeans 6 to 8 higher and wheat 6 to 11 higher.
USDA Monthly Crop Report Estimates
US 20/21 Corn ending stocks, 1.39 BBU compared to the 1.552 BBU in January
US 20/21 Soybean ending stocks, 123 MBU compared to the 140 MBU in January
US 20/21 Wheat ending stocks, 834 MBU compared to 836 MBU in January
World 20/21 Corn stocks, 279.80 MMT compared to 283.83 MMT last month
World 20/21 Soybean stocks, 83.3 MMT compared to 84.31 MMT last month
World 20/21 Wheat stocks, 312.8 MMT compared to 313.19 MMT last month
20/21 Argentina Corn production at 47.0 MMT, -.5 MMT from January
20/21 Brazil Corn production at 108.4, -.6 MMT from January
20/21 Argentina Soybean production at 47.6 MMT, -.4 MMT from January
20/21 Brazil Soybean production at 132.5 MMT, -.5 MMT from January
South American forecasts showing drier than normal conditions again in Argentina. Brazil’s soybean crop doing well as harvest begins. Harvest is delayed, private estimates at 4% compared to 16% last year, which will slow down new crop shipments and give a small boost to soybean exports here in the U.S. The delay will also push their 2nd corn crop planting behind as well.
Much below normal temps from the Northern Plains through the Southern Plains and into the Midwest this week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal temps across most of the country and above normal moisture.
March corn hitting a new contract high last week at $5.58 with nearby support at $5.29. March soybeans contract high from mid-January at $14.36 ½, hasn’t been back above $14 since the 19th, with nearby support around $13.34. March KC wheat still holding the long-term higher trend with support at $6.05 and resistance at $6.48. March Chicago wheat with support at $6.25 and resistance at $6.72. March soybean meal with support at $420 and resistance at $440.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700