Date: November 20th, 2019
Mixed trade so far for cattle futures this week, but good to see some positive settlements after trading triple digits lower yesterday. Lean hog futures continue lower, into new recent lows the past 4 trading sessions as pork prices were sharply lower. Light cash feedlot trade this week scattered around at $114 to $116 live. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 1,398 head consigned compared to last week’s 1,264 head of which non sold but were all offered at $115.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/18/2019
Total Receipts: 7,812 Last Week: 6,931 Last Year: 6,410
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves and yearlings steady to 3.00 lower. Demand moderate, supply moderate to heavy.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/18/2019
Total Receipts: 13,355 Last Week: 8,206 Last Year: 6,895
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 2.00 lower. Steer calves 1.00-4.00 higher and heifer calves trading unevenly steady. Demand moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/18/2019
Total Receipts: 4,874 Last Week: 2,683 Last Year: 2,978
Compared to last week: Steers and Heifers 4.00-6.00 higher. Quality plain thru attractive. Demand good. Slaughter cows 4.00 higher. Slaughter Bulls had too few receipts from last week to establish a trend. However a much higher undertone is noted.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 118,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and down 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 494,000 head, up 2,000 compared to a week ago and up 16,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on moderate demand and offerings for a total of 120 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__239.01 -.11
Select Cutout__215.47 -.12
CME Feeder Index__146.54 -.15
CME Lean Hog Index__59.29 +.05
Pork Carcass Cutout__84.67 -4.47
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__42.16 +.30
National Wtd Avg Live Price__34.78 -.45, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__42.31 +.17
December live cattle holding a lower trend since hitting a new 6-month high at $120.32 with support next around $117. November feeders expire tomorrow. January hit a new 6-month high at $147.77 last week and then dipped below the higher trendline that has been in place since early September with support at $142.50. December lean hogs holding the lower trend that has been in place since mid-April hitting a new recent low at $61.92 yesterday. Support next down around $58 with resistance at $67.
Grains held onto to higher trade throughout the day yesterday. Wheat now gaining back most of last week’s losses, corn gaining back just yesterday’s while soybeans only recovered a penny after sharp losses on Monday. Here’s hoping corn can buy some demand with two export sales announced by USDA so far this week totaling 12.7 MBU. Export sales and shipments to date are only half that of a year ago and weekly inspections have averaged 20 MBU when nearly 40 MBU is needed just to meet’s USDA estimate at 1.85 BBU this year. U.S. wheat continues to work into SE Asia and Central and Southern Africa but still premium to EU and Black Sea origins battling over the largest importers in Northern Africa and the Middle East. South American weather is seen as mostly favorably providing pressure on the grains along with China wanting to rollback tariffs or no deal as the U.S. stance continues to be more tariffs coming without a deal.
Overnight, grains were mixed. Corn finished 1 lower, soybeans 2 higher, and wheat 1 to 2 lower. Hopefully we can build some support here as news is very light recently and next week markets will be closed Thursday but back open Friday as it is first notice day for December grain contracts.
South Korea purchased a total of 130,000 MT or 5.1 MBU of optional origin corn and 60,000 MT or 2.4 MBU of corn from Ukraine. No private sales announced by USDA today.
Rains move through the area this week with heavy rains forecasted for the Southeast heading into the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps west and above normal east with above normal precipitation for all except TX.
December corn holding a lower trend since mid-October, holding support at $3.67 with resistance up at $3.78. January soybeans peaked at $9.59 ½ mid-October which matches the highs from earlier this summer. January soybeans also holding a lower trend with support holding so far at $9.10 and resistance at $9.26. December KC wheat holding a very slow moving higher trend since early September with support at $4.15 and resistance up at $4.39. December Chicago wheat with support at $4.98 ½ and resistance at $5.17. December MPLS with support at $5.01 and resistance up at $5.29. December soybean meal still very choppy with support at $299 and resistance up at $308.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700