Date: April 22nd, 2019
Higher cash prices were delivered to Kansas and Texas where cattle sold for $126. The Texas sellers took the first bid out of the box and Kansas soon followed. Prices were $2 higher than last week. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction sold several pens of cattle in Nebraska for $127 but northern sellers were not quite ready to call it a day and most sellers were holding for $130. To wrap up the week, NE did trade $129 to $130 live and $207 to $208 on a dressed basis, $2 to $4 higher than the week previous. Beef and pork weekly export sales were both bullish Thursday morning, China in for another 23,500 MT of pork.
Cattle on Feed report was bearish with slightly larger than expected On Feed total at 11.964 million head, 102% vs. a year ago and placements at 2.014 million head, 105%. Marketings were in line with expectations at 1.777 million head or 97% vs. a year ago.
Placements by Weight Class (expressed as % of previous year)
Under 600 lb 103%
600-699 lb 105%
700-799 lb 112%
800-899 lb 102%
900-999 lb 100%
Over 1000 lb 93%
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 04/19/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 199,400 86,400 45,400 331,200
Last Week 190,200 53,800 72,800 316,800
Year Ago 182,800 62,500 700 246,000
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold 2.00 to 7.00 higher; some with auctions in the Nebraska and the Southeast reporting steers 10.00 to 14.00 higher. The most gain on steers would be the “grass crazy” demand right now as some producers held off purchasing steers under 650 lbs that are suitable for grass until warmer weather is imminent. Demand at most auctions nationwide this week was described from good to very good as out of state buyers showed up where they hadn’t been seen for a while. Feedlot pens in the Northern Plains have dried considerably the last week and farmer/feeders came to town to procure cattle before they become swamped with planting spring crops. When farmers start the planter in the field, cattle procurement won’t even cross their mind until the planters are back in the shed.
For the week, Friday April 12th to Thursday April 18th, April Live Cattle +$1.97, June +$1.22, May Feeder Cattle +$1.02, August +$1.97, June Lean Hogs -$1.75, July -$.80. Boxed Beef, Choice +$4.81 @ $233.65, Select -$.53 @ $220.49.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 115,000 head, down 3,000 from the previous week but up 1,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 638,000 head, matching the week previous and up 11,000 from a year ago. Beef production estimated at 511.4 million pounds last week compared to 507.4 the week previous and 501.9 last year.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 436,000 head, up 1,000 from the week previous but down 13,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,380,000 head, down 4,000 from the week previous and down 41,000 from a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm to higher on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 79 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__233.65 +.59, +4.81 for the week
Select Cutout__220.49 +1.03, -.53 for the week
CME Feeder Index__145.01 +1.43 from 4/17
CME Lean Hog Index__81.02 +.39
Pork Carcass Cutout__87.24 -.61
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__81.45 +1.63
National Wtd Avg Live Price__57.95 +.31, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__80.86 +2.93
April live cattle expire next week, breaking the recent lower trend, with a contract high at $130.45 back on March 21st. Support is down at $125.50 to $125. May feeders still holding a higher trend with support at $148.60 and the contract high at $155.30. August continues to make new highs, now at $161.40 with support near $158 then $154. May lean hogs now the front month but only trading a fraction of the volume compared to the June contract. May has a contract high at $93.25 while the June contract high is up at $99.82 and resistance next up near the $110 area back from 2014.
Weather forecasts calling for continued dryness in the Southern Plains which is building concern for winter wheat but allowing fall crops to get planted. Midwest and Northern Plains through the Eastern Corn Belt are looking at additional rains in the nearby forecast. Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 37.3 MBU, but disappointing for soybeans and wheat, 14 MBU and 11.7 MBU respectively. Futures were near or into new lows last week with wheat under the most pressure.
Managed money or funds continue to add to short positions with now record short positions in corn and KC wheat. Corn positions show short over 307K contracts, combined futures and options with KC wheat positions short over 54K contracts. They are short over 91K contracts of soybeans with the record near 120K.
For the week, Friday April 12th to Thursday April 18th, May Corn -$.02 ½, New Crop December -$.02 ¾, May Soybeans -$.14 ¾, New Crop November -$.14 ¼, May KC Wheat -$.14 ¼, New Crop July -$.15 ½, May Chicago Wheat -$.20 ¼, New Crop July -$.20 ¼, May MPLS Wheat -$.08, New Crop September -$.08 ½, May Soybean Meal -$4.70/T, December -$5.00/T.
Overnight, grains were lower with the planting window opening for much of the Corn Belt over this next week. Corn finished 2 lower, soybeans 3 lower and wheat 4 to 6 lower.
Crop progress and conditions report will be later this afternoon. I would expect no more than 8% of the corn in the ground nationwide compared to 14% average. This week’s open weather though should allow for some catch up and the market will be paying closer attention from here moving forward.
Heavy rains look to stay isolated in the South and around the Great Lakes this week. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal temps for most with below normal in the North and above normal precipitation in the North with below normal out West and in the Southeast.
May corn contact low at $3.55 ¼, support next at $3.52 ½ (March contract low) and resistance up near $3.66 then $3.80. May soybeans still holding a lower trend since February with support next at $8.71 ½ and resistance up at $9.07 then $9.12. May KC wheat with a new contract low last week at $4.14 ¼, resistance up at $4.35. May Chicago wheat with resistance up at $4.65, and the contract low at $4.27 back in March. May soybean meal broke lower last week with resistance up near $312 and the contract low down at $300.30.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700