HUGE day for the cattle coming off of a setback on Wednesday. Not that we had any massive gains in anything, but monumental from the standpoint of the numbers. Two different contract months in the Feeders pushed up above the $300 mark for the first time in history yesterday and they were the August and Sept contracts. August didn’t flinch much at that 300 handle either, because it settled north of $301. Feeders were up $2-$3 at the close and live cattle were all up over $1. Cash feedlot trade was feeling some love also with Nebraska dressed trade reportedly showing a few sales at $360 to a regional and mostly $355 to the major, along with $228 live. Crazy good times in cattle and also a little unnerving considering we all know how fast it can drop whenever it decides to top. Kansas also reported some at $221, which is up $3 from last week’s wtd average.
Cattle slg.__120,000 unch wa -1k ya wtd thru Thurs 469k -16k ya
Choice Cutout__347.89 +1.74
Select Cutout__333.20 -.80
Feeder Index:___295.78 +2.37
Lean Index.__90.07 -.09
Pork cutout___94.50 -1.04
Hog slg.__484,000 +1k wa +10k ya
In the grains, there were three different 8am flash sales yesterday for corn and beans with 115k mt’s of corn to unknown, 225k mt’s of beans to Pakistan and 205k mt’s of corn to Mexico. That’s the first 8am business since April 30th. Weekly export sales numbers for old crop were bullish corn at 65.4 mln bushels, decent in soybeans with 13.8 mln and bearish on the old crop side for wheat at only 2.6 mln bushels. Wheat finished lower across the board, but that’s likely more rainfall based than anything. Beans were up mildly and corn was once again lower. Spot May corn broke through heavy support this week, making it ugly on the charts and new crop Dec corn tiptoed below support, but didn’t extend.
The May WASDE report comes out Monday. This is going to include our first look at actual surveyed yield estimates in winter wheat. It’s also going to include production estimates for corn and soybeans, but there’s no survey work in those numbers. They take the March First Planting intentions as acreage numbers, use historical planted versus actual harvested numbers and trendline for yields. For corn with a big increase in acres versus a year ago and a healthy trendline yield, the new crop ending stocks are likely going to look bearish. Wheat and soybean numbers are likely going to be a little negative across the board.
Old crop wheat ending stocks are expected to increase 4 mln bushels to 850 mln with new crop stocks estimates coming in at 863 mln. Yes, those are both bearish stocks numbers. Soybean old crop stocks are projected 6 mln bushels lower than last month at 369 mln with new crop stocks at 362 mln. Both of those bearish as well. Corn old crop stocks are pegged at 1.443 bln bushels, down 22 mln from last month and bullish! New crop stocks are a different story, with a 2.02 bln ending stocks estimate. Little reminder though, old crop stocks at one point were predicted to be over 2 bln also, yet here we are with a 1.465 bln carryout from April’s WASDE report.
Old crop world stocks are expected to increase mildly in wheat and soybeans and decline mildly in corn. This report will also provide the first world ending stocks estimates for the 25/26 crop year. Expectations are for a sizable year over year jump in corn and soybean supply and a very mild increase in wheat.
South American corn and soybean production estimates show an average analyst estimate for Argentina corn at 49.75 mmt’s, down 250k mt’s from April, Brazil corn at 126.96 mmt’s, up 960k from last month, Argentina soybean production up 250k mt’s from a month ago at 49.25 mmt’s and Brazil beans at 169.17 mmt’s, up 170k from last month.
Funds yesterday were estimated sellers of 2500 wheat, 6k corn and on the by side of 3k beans.
8am daily export reporting showed 120k mt’s of new crop US soybean sales to Pakistan and 288k mt’s of corn to Mexico broken down as 95k old crop and 193k new crop.
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