Cattle futures had two sided trade on Friday but nothing too exciting heading into the COF report that came out after the close. Live cattle didn’t have a very wide range of trade and feeders didn’t trade anything too extreme either. Both failed to move above Thursday’s new recent highs. Looking at the full week of futures trade though, things were impressive last week with live cattle making new recent highs each day Monday through Thursday. Feeder cattle weren’t as impressive on the charts, but they did climb and were able to take out some resistance from the highs in April and make new recent highs on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday afternoon’s monthly cattle on feed report came in right in line with the pre-report estimates and was a bullish report. The May COF number came in at 99%, placements in April came in at 94%, and marketings in April came in at 110%. To convert that marketings number to a daily comparison- with there being 2 more business days in April this year versus last- that 110 would drop back to 101% marketings compared to a year ago. Cumulative 2024 placements are behind 2023 by 320,000 head, and 612,000 head less than 2022.
Negotiated cash cattle trade at the feedlot level had traded some volume before Friday afternoon, and the remainder of business that was done on Friday solidified the trend in Texas and Kansas, but brought out some higher dressed trade in the north. Texas traded $1 higher at $187, Kansas traded a range of $187-$189 which is $1-$3 higher than the previous week’s high. Nebraska live traded premium to the south at $192 which was $2 higher, and dressed traded $300-$304 which is $4 higher peak to peak.
Weekly closes in the meats- Friday to Friday- had June live cattle +2.65, August +2.07. August feeders +0.37, September +0.90. June lean hogs -2.22.
Cattle slg.__ on Friday was 117K, +15K compared to wa, and -1K compared to ya. WTD slaughter after Saturday’s kill was 607K, +9K from wa, and -18K compared to ya.
Choice Beef Cutout__310.45 +0.61
Select Cutout__301.72 +1.64
CME Feeder Cattle Index: $250.14 +1.33
Hog slg.__ on Friday was 451K, -17K from wa, and +1K compared to ya. WTD hog slaughter after Saturday was at 2,373,000, -31K from wa, and +18K compared to ya.
Lean Index. 91.80 +0.03__ Pork cutout___99.14 +0.45
*****************************************************************************
In the grain and oilseed trade, there was some strength on Friday aside from Chicago wheat that couldn’t find much to rally off of after the Illinois wheat tour predicted a record crop in SRW country. The most impressive chart wise would be KC wheat after it made a new recent high at $7.25 ¼ in front month July, which hasn’t been touched since September of last year. KC was also strong in the overnight session climbing clear up to $7.46 ¼! Corn did trade quite a bit lower on Friday but managed to climb out of that by the end of the session with the strength in other markets. And soybeans enjoyed some strength as well as they closed near the top end of their trading range for the day.
The weekly export inspections report was not released Monday due to the holiday and will be released today as well as the crop progress report.
Funds were estimated to be on the buy side of 500 wheat contracts, 1000 corn, and 2500 soybean contracts on Friday.
6-10 day weather forecasts show above normal temps for majority of the US but not quite as far above normal for the Corn Belt. And precip forecasts show above normal from Texas up through the southern plains and into the Corn belt and East, but below normal in the Northern Plains and rockies into Nevada.
Weekly closes in the grains had July KC wheat +59 ½, Sept +60 ¼. July Chicago +46, September +45 ½. September MPLS +41. July corn +12 ¼, December +11 ¾. July soybeans +20, November +16 ¼.
8am daily export sales showed a sale of 215K MT of US corn sold to Mexico. 165K was old crop and 50K MT was new crop.
IMPORTANT—PLEASE NOTE
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.