Uncategorized

Parts of the market got a little reprieve from recent beatings yesterday and part of it didn’t. Dec corn got hit with a double whammy of new recent lows and big time support being violated, along with dropping below the “3” handle. That’s the first time since 2020 that a Dec futures contract traded below $4 in the expiring year. To date, front end corn and MGEX wheat were the only two in the grains that hadn’t hit a new low water mark and in the past two days it finally happened unfortunately. It’s hard to fight funds jumping back on the sell side after only a brief reprieve after covering some of the record short positions in beans and corn, but they’ve been back…

In the grain and oilseed trade, we got a little breather from the relentless selling that’s been so prevalent lately. Wheat managed double digit higher closes in a few contract months, corn was mildly higher and beans were mixed with pressure on new crop and mildly higher old crop closes. Managed money is still at or really close to record short both corn and beans and that’s been a dark cloud looming over grains lately. One could easily make an argument that specs are so heavily weighted on the sell side that downside should be limited from here, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned from the past, it’s that records are made to be broken and sometimes they are broken by a wide, wide…

Date: July 17, 2024 Cattle futures opened up lower to start the session off yesterday after a very quiet day of trading on Monday. Tuesday’s trade again fairly quiet with no $1+ moves in either direction once again. All cattle contracts, except for the nearby August feeders, finished with small gains. With two uneventful days in a row after testing up trending support late last week, it appears futures are content with waiting for some influence from cash feedlot trade. So far this week, only very light volume has been reported in the North at $195 to $197 live, $1 to $3 lower than the bulk of last week’s trade. We also have a Cattle on Feed report coming this Friday with the average estimate…

Date: July 10, 2024 Livestock futures all settled lower on Tuesday but did trade both sides. Cattle futures were higher during the morning trading hours, but as soon as the midday beef report came out sharply lower, cattle futures fell off and finished triple digits lower. Domestic beef demand seasonally begins to slow after Independence Day. The futures liquidation so far this week looks to pressure cash feedlot trade as well. There has only been some very light volume reported so far this week at $190 live and $317 dressed, steady with last week. Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/8/2024 - Final Total Receipts: 4,366 Last Week: 2,431 Last Year: 6,879 Compare to last week: Feeder…

Date: July 8, 2024 Livestock futures were mixed on Friday but all held week over week gains. Weekly export sales for beef were not very impressive at 15,500 MT but pork sales were a new marketing year high at 59,100 MT. Cash fed cattle trade was only reported on light volume as of the close on Friday steady with the week previous. Live trade at $190 in the South and trade in the North mostly $198 to $200 live and $310 to $315 on a dressed basis. Northern trade was holding out for higher money, above $200 live and $317 dressed. Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats… August Live Cattle +$1.00, October +$2.30, August Feeder Cattle +$2.17, September +$2.57, July Lean Hogs +$.42, August…

Date: June 26, 2024 Livestock futures were mixed on Tuesday with cattle futures trading both sides of unchanged and settling mixed while lean hogs continue to make new lows. July lean hogs made a new contract low, taking out the previous contract low that was hit back in May 2023. October live cattle hit a new 8-month high on Tuesday, with just a few days left until expiration, as higher cash trade has been the most supportive factor bringing futures sharply higher the past couple weeks to converge with the cash trade. Higher beef prices of course continue to support the cattle market as well. A recap of last week’s cash fed cattle trade showed feedlots selling 73,368 head, nearly 80% of that for nearby…

Date: June 24, 2024 Livestock futures were mixed this past week with small gains for live cattle and lean hogs but triple digits losses week over week for feeder cattle. As of the close on Friday, only light volume cash feedlot trade had been reported from $193 to $198 live and $310 to $312 on a dressed basis. This is steady to $2 higher with the week previous, matching the top end reported by the end of the week. After the close, volume picked up with live trade in the South from $189 to $191, $3 to $5 higher than the week previous and trade in the North $4 to $6 higher from $198 to $199 live and $310 to $314 dressed. Neutral to bearish…

Date: June 17, 2024 Cattle futures finished out last week triple digits higher while lean hogs were mixed. The June lean hog contract expired and hit yet another recent low losing $18.50 since the April highs. Most cattle contracts gapped higher and never looked back as cash fed cattle trade was again reported higher and beef prices hit new highs for the year. Light volume cash feedlot trade started on Tuesday in NE at $190 live and in TX and KS on Wednesday at $185 live, both areas steady with the week previous. Thursday’s trade picked up in volume at $186 live in the South and shot up $5 in the North to $195 live and $305 dressed. Friday added even more with a few…

Date: June 12, 2024 Livestock futures traded both sides of unchanged on Tuesday but ultimately all finished lower. Both live and feeder cattle futures were able to hit new recent highs with June live cattle testing the May highs. Overall though it was not a great follow through day after Monday’s triple digit rally. No cash feedlot trade yet this week but hopes are for higher money this week as feedlots are current and sales were on the lighter side last week. Beef demand also remains strong with new highs for the year again yesterday. Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/10/2024 - Final Total Receipts: 6,584 Last Week: 7,170 Last Year: 10,143 Compared to last week:…

Date: June 5, 2024 Livestock futures were mixed on Tuesday but finished mostly lower throughout with minor losses to both fats and feeders and triple digit losses for nearly every lean hog contract. Cattle futures have spent the past couple trading sessions trading in fairly tight ranges and looking for direction this week. Last week’s cash fed cattle trade was overall $1 to $3 lower with the weighted average reported at $188.83 live and $301.20 on a dressed basis. Only very light volume reported so far this week in the WCB at $190 live. Lean hogs continue to drift lower, breaking nearby support yesterday for a new 5-month low. Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/3/2024 -…