Date: July 14, 2025
Cattle futures rallied the majority of last week and finished out the week sharply higher. Beef prices did pull back lower to end the week, but USDA closed down the southern border yet again for live cattle imports from Mexico. AZ had opened up for just a couple days before being closed yet again as New World screwworm has moved further north in Mexico than previously reported. $6 to $10 higher cash fed cattle trade also supportive last week with TX and KS trade reported from $228 to $230 live and trade in the North mostly $240 live and $380 on a dressed basis.
USDA on Friday updated multiple years of balance sheet items for the meats. The most significant changes were a decrease in this year’s beef production by 170 mil lbs but an increase in 2026 of 540 mil lbs. Beef imports also increased for both this year and next as 2026 imports now just shy of 2 times the amount expected to be exported. Pork production was increased for this year by 45 mil lbs and for next year by 110 mil lbs.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats… August Live Cattle +$8.15, October +$8.80, August Feeder Cattle +$15.82, September +$16.02, July Lean Hogs -$1.25, August -$1.42. Boxed Beef Choice -$11.11 @ $378.64 & Pork Carcass Cutout +$3.26 @ $113.47.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 568,000 head, up 94,000 from the holiday shortened week previous but down 37,000 from last year. Year to date now -6.5% vs. last year with year to date beef production -3.4%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,371,000 head, up 525,000 compared to the week previous and up 2,000 compared to a year ago. Year to date now -2.1% compared to last year with year to date pork production -1.8%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday again sharply lower on good demand with 138 loads sold.
Choice -6.02 @ 378.64, Select -4.37 @ 366.49
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 323.37
CME Lean Hog Index @ 107.10
Cash Pork Carcass Cutout -.68 @ 113.47
August live cattle new contact high last Friday at $223.27, the all-time spot high from mid-June at $229.12, with support around $213 then at $207.70. August feeders new contract and all-time spot high last Thursday at $326.87, well above the upper level of the higher trending channel. The next upside target would be at $330 with support at $308 then the $300 level for both the August and September contracts. July lean hogs expire this Tuesday and look to hold right around $107. August will then be the front month which broke through nearby support last Friday for a new recent low at $104.55. Nearby support next at $103.50 then at $100.45 with resistance at $108.35 then the contract high from last month at $113.37.
Grains finished out last week under pressure with new contract lows for corn and new 3-month lows for soybeans. The USDA crop report was friendly yet again for corn and for winter wheat, but slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for spring wheat. U.S. weather remains very good and continues to be the controlling factor on the grain markets. Old crop ending stocks for corn reduced another 25 MBU, down to 1.34 BBU and stocks to use down to 8.75%, the lowest in the past 10 years. New crop ending stocks down 90 MBU to 1.66 BBU. Corn yield left alone at 181 BPA, but I feel most are trading a number of 185+. Winter wheat production reduced by 37 MBU but spring wheat production estimates increased by 45 MBU. Old crop soybean stocks left unchanged at 350 MBU while new crop stocks increased by 15 MBU to 310 MBU. Brazil’s current corn crop production increased by 2 MMT as expected and Argentina’s soybean production increased by 0.9 MMT.
Weekly closes in the grains…September Corn -$.24 ¼, December -$.24 ¾, August Soybeans -$.51 ¼, November -$.42, September Chicago Wheat -$.11 ¾, December -$.12 ¾, September KC Wheat -$.11 ¾, December -$.12 ½, September MPLS Wheat -$.33 ½, August Soybean Meal -$7.10/T.
All grains reversed higher overnight after a soft opening Sunday night. U.S. weather still showing plenty of good rain chances across the Corn Belt over the next couple weeks. Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs up to 30% on Mexico and EU. This comes after the announcement late last week to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. All USMCA goods will be exempt. No retaliatory tariff threats yet as there is still hope to strike a trade deal or at least the framework over the next couple weeks. Corn finished the overnight 3 higher, beans 1 to 3 higher and wheat 2 to 6 higher. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies higher with crude oil +$.70/barrel.
Export inspections out later this morning along with crop progress this afternoon. We shall see if corn and bean conditions can continue to improve. Although, hard to see it getting much better. As of last week’s report, only 2 major producing corn states had good/excellent ratings below 60%…MI at 56% and OH at 57%.
Scattered rains this week from the Northern Plains to the mid-Atlantic with the heaviest amounts again located across the WCB. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the majority of the U.S. and above normal precip for the Northern Border States and eastern half of the U.S. with below normal in the Southern Plains and out West.
September corn down to a new contract low again overnight at $3.91 ¼. Support next from the continuous weekly chart down at $3.77, last year’s Sept corn low at $3.60 ½, resistance up at $4.05 then at $4.30. December also hit a new contract low overnight at $4.07 ½ with resistance at $4.30 then $4.42. August soybeans holding a month long lower trend now with a new recent low overnight at $9.94 ½, support at $9.83 then the contract low at $9.64, resistance around $10.40 then the June high at $10.82. November also breaking the $10 level down to $9.98 ¼ for a new recent low overnight with support next at $9.71 and resistance around $10.35 then the June high at $10.74 ¼. September Chicago wheat contract low at $5.21 ¼, nearby support at $5.35, resistance at $5.70 and the June high at $5.94. September KC wheat contract low at $5.15 ½, resistance at $5.50 and the June high at $5.90 ½. September MPLS wheat breaking the short-term higher trend last Friday with support at $6.08 ½ and resistance at $6.40. August soybean meal down to a new contract low last week at $267.6 with resistance at $281.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
IMPORTANT—PLEASE NOTE
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.