Date: June 17, 2024
Cattle futures finished out last week triple digits higher while lean hogs were mixed. The June lean hog contract expired and hit yet another recent low losing $18.50 since the April highs. Most cattle contracts gapped higher and never looked back as cash fed cattle trade was again reported higher and beef prices hit new highs for the year. Light volume cash feedlot trade started on Tuesday in NE at $190 live and in TX and KS on Wednesday at $185 live, both areas steady with the week previous. Thursday’s trade picked up in volume at $186 live in the South and shot up $5 in the North to $195 live and $305 dressed. Friday added even more with a few sales reported as high as $197 live and $310 dressed.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…June Live Cattle +$4.65, August +$6.00, August Feeder Cattle +$7.05, September +$6.85, June Lean Hogs -$1.35, July +$.15. Choice Boxed Beef +$3.14 at $319.89 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$.44 at $101.35.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/9/24-6/15/24
Total Receipts: 23,741 Last Week: 25,932 Last Year: 32,018
Compared to last week: Feeder steers over 800lbs 4.00-8.00 higher. Feeder steers under 800lbs 2.00-5.00 lower. Steer calves 3.00-4.00 higher. Feeder heifers 3.00-5.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 4.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 615,000 head, up 1,000 from the week previous but down 21,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 522.4 million pounds last week with year to date -1.6% vs. last year and year to date slaughter still -4.4%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,390,000 head, down 32,000 compared to the week previous but up 64,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 515.1 million pounds last week with year to date now +0.8% vs. a year ago and year to date slaughter +0.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate demand with 101 loads sold.
Choice +1.58 @ 319.89, Select +4.56 @ 303.81
CME Feeder Cattle Index 256.13
CME Lean Hog Index 91.44
Pork Carcass Cutout +4.33 @ 101.35
June live cattle up to a new 8-month high on Friday at $186.97. There are only 2 weeks left until the contract expires which should hold it close to cash. The next price resistance is up at $189.05 with support at $181. August gapped higher but was unable to test the spring highs at $185 with support at $176. August feeders continue to chop sideways with a recent high on May 29th at $264.95 down to the recent low on June 6th at $250.80. July lean hogs crashed down to a new 5-month low last Friday to $90.40 before reversing and finishing higher. Support is just below the $90 level with resistance at $94.75 then $98.20.
Winter wheat harvest and lower world values kept pressure on U.S. wheat futures last week. Corn and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged as U.S. weather has been non-threatening. There are still some concerns for Russian wheat, Chinese corn and Argentina’s crop, but forecasts did improve last week for all. USDA did not surprise the markets with its monthly crop report midweek. U.S. winter wheat production was increased but so were exports which dropped ending stocks. Hardly any changes for the fall crops. World ending stocks for wheat, corn and soybeans did come down slightly vs. a month ago as expected.
Weekly closes in the grains…July Corn +$.01 ¼, December +$.03, July Soybeans +$.00 ½, November -$.08, July Chicago Wheat -$.14 ¾, July KC Wheat -$.38 ¼, July MPLS Wheat -$.40 ¼, July Soybean Meal +$7.7/T.
Grains trading lower overnight with double digit losses for soybeans and wheat and nickel lower for corn. Comments out of China stating that even with recent hot and dry conditions, summer grain harvest should still be very good. This of course counteracts the recent reports of crop damage. It is always tough to gauge what is said out of China, so look for their actions instead. They have been buyers still of old crop U.S. soybeans but not new crop. Milo sales remain strong and there have been a few wheat sales. China also announced an anti-dumping probe into EU pork. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ steady to higher, and energies higher with crude oil up $.30/barrel.
Weekly export inspections will be released later this morning then crop progress and conditions this afternoon. It wouldn’t surprise me to crop conditions down 1-2% vs. last week. Markets will closed on Wednesday which will delay the weekly energy report until Thursday and weekly export sales to Friday morning.
U.S weather this week highlighted by continued above normal temps with good rains chances for the WCB and Gulf states midweek but still only light and scattered elsewhere. The 6-10 day outlook still shows above normal temps across the entire country with above normal moisture from the central Plains to the East Coast and below normal moisture in the Northwest.
The grain charts are not looking good with fresh new recent lows for soybeans and all three wheat markets. July corn breaking the recent higher trend but the recent low back on June 5th at $4.38 ¼ will hopefully provide some support with resistance at $4.60 ½. July soybeans down to a new 6-week low overnight at $11.62 ½ with support next at $11.56 and resistance at $12.05. July Chicago wheat gapped lower overnight for a new recent low at $5.93 with support next at $5.50 and resistance at $6.33. July KC wheat new recent low overnight at $6.10 with support next at $5.68. July MPLS wheat down to $6.44 ½ overnight with support at $6.39. July soybean meal still holding a short-term higher trend with support at $355 and resistance at $391.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
IMPORTANT—PLEASE NOTE
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.