Date: June 16th, 2022
Almost an entirely green screen for livestock futures yesterday with Live Cattle leading the way. Through yesterday afternoon the USDA confirmed 71,307 head of negotiated cash and 16,464 head of negotiated grid cattle selling nationwide in a range of $136-$149 live and $2.23-$2.36 dressed. Rallying futures and cash thanks to current showlists and strong demand. Feeders were a follower higher yesterday, and still have quite of bit of room to make up, the past couple weeks has been choppy but trending higher. There’s also been quite bit of chatter about death loss this week here in KS feedlots with some reporting up to 10,000 head dropping due to heat stress.
June Live Cattle +235 @ 137.55, August +272 @ 136.80
August Feeder Cattle +197 @ 173.27, September +175 @ 175.10
July Lean Hogs +165 @ 108.27, August +77 @ 104.32
OKC West Livestock Auction – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/14/2022
This Week: 6,830 Last Week: 7,453 Last Year: 9,669
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers traded 3.00-5.00 higher, few trades sharply higher. Demand very good for feeders. Steer and heifer calves sold mostly steady to weak on limited comparable offerings.
Winter Livestock – Dodge City, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/15/2022
This Week: 1,486 Last Week: 1,409 Last Year: 1,055
Compared to last week, feeder steers 650 lb to 950 lb sold 4.00 to 6.00 higher. Not enough steers 450 lb to 650 lb for a market test. Feeder heifers 650 lb to 850 lb sold 2.00 to 5.00 higher. One fancy load of heifers weighing 731# sold for 159.85 which would be 10.00 higher than last week. Not enough heifers 450 lb to 650 lb for a market test, however a lower trend was noted.
Windsor Livestock Auction – Windsor, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/15/2022
This Week: 2,390 Last Week: 2,940 Last Year: 1,801
Compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 400-700 lbs sold fully steady to firm, with weights over 700 lbs lightly tested. Feeder heifers weighing 400-500 lbs sold steady to firm, spots 4.00 higher on the 400-450 lb heifers, 500-600 lbs sold steady to 5.00 lower and 600-650 lbs sold steady to 5.00 higher and over 650 lbs had few good comparisons.
Hub City Livestock Auction – Aberdeen, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/15/2022
This Week: 3,612 Last Week: 1,995 Last Year: 3,924
Compared to last week: best tests on steers 900 to 950 lbs and 1000 to 1050 lbs steady to 2.00 higher with instances up to 5.00 higher on 1000 to 1050 lbs. Best test on heifers 750 to 800 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $180 to $186 and 8 weight index steers averaged $169 to $177.
Cattle slaughter from Wednesday estimated at 126,000 head, matching last week and up 5,000 from last year. Week to date now running 9,000 head behind last week. Hog slaughter from Wednesday estimated at 472,000 head, down 5,000 compared to a week ago and compared to a year ago. Tuesday’s hog slaughter revised lower again, down 5,000 to 469,000 head. Week to date now running 30,000 behind last week.
Boxed beef cutout values lower again on Wednesday on moderate to good demand with 134 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__268.22 -1.22
Select Cutout__245.68 -1.14
CME Feeder Cattle Index__160.08 -.10
CME Lean Hog Index__108.57 +.44
Pork Carcass Cutout __105.79 -2.88
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__119.86 +.61, 15,571 head
Beef and pork net export sales were fairly routine for the week ending June 9th. Net beef sales of 17,400 MT and exports of 19,800 MT. Net pork sales totaled 27,600 MT, exports of 27,800.
June live cattle gapping higher yesterday, the third such move in the past 6 trading sessions. Support is down at $134 then $132.50 with the next resistance again at the $140 level which was a spike high back in April then the contract high at $143.35 from February. August feeders still unable to fill the gap lower move from Monday with support down at $169.40 and resistance at the three spike highs over the past three months from $176.87 just last week to $178.22 back in April. July lean hogs reversing higher yesterday with support holding so far this week from $103.50 to $104 and resistance at $110.60 then $114.
Grains traded mixed throughout the day again yesterday, wheat the leader lower again, very active winter wheat harvest this week. There were plenty of headlines to trade, most leaning or trying to spin a bearish tone but the markets seemed to ignore most of it…
• Russia continues to say they can “provide safe passage” for Ukraine grain vessels through the Black Sea for which their navy has controlled since invading Ukraine and Ukraine has defended against without even having a navy
• Putin stated that Russia and China have agreed to expand cooperation in energy, finance, and industry to battle the sanctions from the West
• Turkey has devised a plan to navigate the Black Sea without demining
• Poland said to be able to build grain storage along the Ukraine border, but would take months to complete. There still remains the issue of different gauge rail, a shortage of railcars and some lines and bridges destroyed by Russian airstrikes
Fall crops mixed with nearby corn higher and basis supported trying to secure cash grain for this summer while soybeans are the opposite. Nearby soybeans under pressure with basis levels for exports and interior pulling back this week. It didn’t help to see the export sales cancellation yesterday either. NOPA May crush though was a new record amount for the month of May at 171.077 MBU and 4.6% above a year ago.
Equities and energies lower this morning. Grains were steady to higher. Corn and soybeans finished the overnight 8 to 10 higher with wheat 5 to 7 higher.
Grain export sales for the week ending June 9th all on the lower end of expectations. Wheat net sales totaled 8.7 MBU. Corn only 5.5 MBU, a new marketing year low, with new crop sales also at 5.5 MBU. Soybean old crop net sales totaled 11.7 MBU and new crop at 15 MBU with China buying 37% of the combined total.
Scattered rains yesterday from MN and WI back into IA with one band of heavy rain from Milwaukee down to Emporia. Excessive heat still in the forecast into the middle of next week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for the majority of the country with below normal moisture in the South and West Coast and above normal moisture now from the Southwest up into the WCB
July corn now holding a 2-week long higher trend after the new recent low on June 1st at $7.20 ½ with resistance around $7.82. The December contract has support at $7.07 with resistance at $7.40. July soybeans a new contract high last week at $17.84, but lower since and breaking nearby support this week with the next down around $16.70. The November contract holding the long-term higher trend, also a new contract high last week at $15.84 ¾ with support around the $15 level. July KC Wheat rangebound so far this month with support at $11.12 and resistance at $11.85. July Chicago wheat with support at $10.27 and resistance at $11.09. July MPLS wheat with support at $11.90 and nearby resistance at $12.50. July Soybean Meal with support at $404 and resistance at $437.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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