Date: March 30th, 2022
Cattle futures mostly triple digits higher led by the feeders with grains sharply lower on Tuesday. No follow through buying for the lean hogs yesterday after new highs were hit on Monday and sharply higher prices last week. The picture still looks bullish though heading into the summer months. Cash fed cattle at a standstill so far this week and steady or $138 live are the current thoughts. Showlists do appear to be a little smaller than the past couple weeks and asking prices are $2 higher.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/29/2022
This Week: 3,063 Last Week: 2,345 Last Year: 2,887
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher. A few sales of steer calves under 500 lbs sold with a firm to higher undertone, but comparisons were light as the majority of the offering consisted of loads and packages of yearlings.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/29/2022
This Week: 3,223 Last Week: 1,676 Last Year: 3,364
Compared to last week, steer calves traded 5.00-10.00 higher while heifer calves trade 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand was very good on a moderate supply. Long-time weened and ready to turnout calves were in greatest demand with green grass looking for warmer nights to start growing.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 6,000 from last year. Cattle slaughter from Monday though revised 5,000 lower to 119,000 head. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 479,000 head, matching a week ago but down 9,000 compared to a year ago. Surprisingly no revision lower for hog slaughter on Monday.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on Choice but lower on Select on light to moderate demand with 87 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__264.50 +.63
Select Cutout__254.84 -1.48
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.29 +.18
CME Lean Hog Index__103.56 +.63
Pork Carcass Cutout __103.94 -3.47
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 103.93 -1.96 on 8,899 head
April live cattle chopping sideways over the past couple weeks but still holding a higher trend since bottoming out back on March 4th with nearby support at $138 and resistance at $141.50. March feeders expire tomorrow and content with holding near $156. April forward gapping higher yesterday and hitting new highs for the month. April has support around $160 with resistance next at $167.50. August has support around $178 with resistance next at $185. April lean hogs breaking the range bound trading this month for a new recent high on Monday at $108.45, the contact high at $112.85 back on February 23rd and support at $102. The June contract hit a new contract high on Monday at $126.87 with support around $116. That has already taken out last summer’s highs which peaked around $123 in June.
Grains sharply lower for the second day in a row yesterday. Nearby Chicago Wheat and Corn contracts actually touched limit lower in the early morning trading. Futures were able to come off their lows during the day session. Right now the chatter about Russia pulling back into eastern Ukraine and productive peace talks seem to have eased most of the grain, oilseed and energy markets. USDA prospective plantings and quarterly stocks along with end of the month and end of quarter trading all hit on Thursday.
Overnight, grains were steady and trading both sides of unchanged until 7 AM. Headlines making a splash this morning coming from Ukraine’s President Zelensky telling Norwegian Parliament that Europe should ban Russian ships from European ports while Germany has stated they are ready to act as a security guarantor for Ukraine. He also stated that Russia is deploying additional troops and only relocating some from northern to eastern Ukraine to encircle his troops and cut them off. All grains, oilseeds and energies caught bids with crude $3 higher, corn and soybeans 10 to 15 higher and wheat jumping 20 higher. Equites still pointing lower this morning, crude pushing into new daily highs at $4+ higher as corn and soybeans finished the overnight $.08 to $.13 higher with wheat $.14 to $.18 higher. Taiwan purchased 40,000 MT or 1.5 MBU of U.S. milling quality wheat. USDA announced a private sale of 128,000 MT or 4.7 MBU of new crop soybeans for delivery to Mexico.
USDA will report prospective plantings and quarterly stocks tomorrow at 11 AM CST. The average trade estimate for corn planted acres is right at 92 million, down 1.4 million from a year ago, with a range from 89.7 to 93.5 million acres. Soybean planted acres are expected to be at 88.7 million, up 1.5 million acres from a year ago, with a range from 86 to 92.2 million. This prospective plantings report is generated from producer survey information at the beginning of March as December corn continued to make new contract highs into last week but November soybeans have yet to take out the spike high from February 24th. All wheat acres expected to be 47.9 million, up 1.2 million vs. last year. Winter wheat acres already projected to be at 34.4 million back in January, the highest in six years.
Spring storms moved through parts of the Southern Plains yesterday and into the Southeast today. Heavy rains expected to continue over this next week in the Southeast and stretching up into parts of the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the majority of the western half of the U.S. with above normal moisture for the eastern half.
May corn breaking nearby support and touching the $.35 limit lower yesterday down to $7.13 ½ with the low from March 2nd down at $7.11 ½, resistance up around $7.48 then $7.70. The December contract continues to hold a higher trend with support around $6.30, nearby resistance at $6.65 and the new contract high last week up at $6.80 ½. May soybeans down to $16.22 yesterday with support next at $16.13 and resistance around $16.80. The November contract shot down to $14.25 ¾ yesterday with the March low down at $14.20 and resistance at $14.80. May KC wheat breaking below the $10 level yesterday to $9.93 with resistance up at $11.13. The July contract has support next at $9.83 with resistance at $11.01. May Chicago wheat with support at $9.32 and resistance at $10.80 while July looks similar with support at $9.55 and resistance at $10.65. May MPLS wheat with support around $10.20 and resistance at $10.90. May Soybean Meal still holding a higher trend with a new contract high last Friday at $494.70 and support at $460.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336