Date: October 21st, 2021
Livestock futures were mixed yesterday with cattle futures higher and lean hogs triple digits lower. Lean hogs closed the gap from late September after the bullish quarterly hogs and pigs report. New recent highs were hit the first of October but pressure on pork, cash and futures since. Cash feedlot trade picked up the pace on Wednesday in the KS and TX at $124 live and in NE at $196 dressed, steady with last week. Live trade in NE a bit firmer than week ago at $124 up to $126.50 live and IA up to $127. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction on Wednesday resulted in zero sales of the 2,757 head listed, bids ranged mostly from $120 to $124 live. Estimates for Friday’s Cattle on feed report leaning to 1% to 2% higher placements vs. a year ago, 3% lower marketings and October on feed unchanged to slightly lower than last year.
La Junta Livestock Commission – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/20/2021
This Week: 3,786 Last Week: 3,421 Last Year: 3,788
Compared with last Wednesday: Steer calves 300 to 400 lbs mostly steady, 400 to 550 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 higher 550 to 700 lbs 1.00 to 3.00 higher. Heifer calves under 500 lbs steady to 1.00 higher, over 500 lbs 1.00 to 3.00 higher. Yearling feeder steers and heifers mostly steady. Slaughter cows 1.00 lower. Slaughter bulls steady. Demand moderate to good.
Winter Livestock – Dodge City, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/20/2021
This Week: 2,969 Last Week: 3,414 Last Year: 3,917
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers 400 lb to 900 lb sold 5.00 to 8.00 higher, instances 10.00 higher. Demand was good. Slaughter cows sold 1.00 to 2.00 higher with high yielding cows selling for 80.75. Slaughter bulls sold steady with 2 weeks ago.
Huss Livestock Market – Kearney, NE
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/20/2021
This Week: 3,371 Last Week: 1,402 Last Year: 2,132
Compared to last week steer calves and yearlings steers sold steady. Heifer calves sold steady with yearling heifers steady to 2.00 higher. Demand was good from start to finish for calves and yearlings. Bulk of the calves were bawlers with precondition shots and some had been weaned for 60 days.
Southern Oklahoma Livestock Auction Feeder Cattle- Ada, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/20/2021
This Week: 2,880 Last Week: 1,573 Last Year: 2,059
Compared to last week: Feeder steers were steady. Feeder heifer were 3.00 – 6.00 higher. Steer calves were 2.00- 4.00 higher. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Quality average to very attractive.
Hub City Livestock Auction – Aberdeen, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/20/2021
This Week: 4,365 Last Week: 3,743 Last Year: 4,238
Compared to last week: best test on yearling steers 850 to 900 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 higher, 950 to 1000 lbs steady to 1.00 lower. Best test on yearling heifers 800 to 850 lbs 3.00 to 4.00 higher. Calves too lightly tested last week for comparison. Good to very good demand for yearlings again this week.
Torrington Livestock Feeder Cattle Auction – Torrington, WY
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/20/2021
This Week: 4,218 Last Week: 2,602 Last Year: 5,179
Compared to last week; steer and heifers calves sold unevenly steady to weak with the exception of steers and heifers over 600 lbs trading 3.00 lower. Yearling steers and heifers also traded steady to last week on comparable traded.
Cattle slaughter from Wednesday estimated at 121,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 2,000 from last year. Week to date at 362,000 head, up 1,000 from last week. Hog slaughter from Wednesday estimated at 478,000 head, up 5,000 compared to last week but down 15,000 compared to a year ago. Week to date at 1,428,000 head, also up 1,000 compared to last week.
Boxed beef cutout values on Wednesday lower on Choice but higher on Select on moderate demand with 128 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__280.03 -.85
Select Cutout__262.82 +1.27
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.03 -.07
CME Lean Hog Index__85.89 -.74
Pork Carcass Cutout__96.87 -2.40
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__66.93 -.04
Weekly beef export sales very disappointing this morning but shipments were good while pork sales were historically standard and shipments again very strong.
Beef: Net sales of 7,800 MT, a marketing-year low, down 50% from the previous week and 51% from the prior 4-week average. Southeast Asia still the main buyers, but low volume this past week. Exports of 17,100 MT were up 10% from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The top three destinations were South Korea, Japan and China.
Pork: Net sales of 20,900 MT, down 38% from the previous week and 36% from the prior 4-week average. The top 3 buyers were Mexico, South Korea and Japan. Exports of 32,800 MT were up 11% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. The top 3 destinations were Mexico, Japan and China.
October live cattle testing resistance at $126 with support at $123. Only a week left until expiration and cash still hanging on right at $124. The highest volume December contract also testing resistance right above $131 with support at $128. The higher trend is holding this month since hitting a new recent low down at $125. October feeders hit resistance just above $160 early last week and a lower trend holding since with support at $155 then last month’s low at $151.92. The November contract does not look as bad with support holding just above $158 and resistance at $162.30. December lean hogs filling the gap and into a new recent low with support at last month’s low down at $71.27 and nearby resistance at $80.
Grains all higher yesterday led by the soy complex. Supportive news also from the EIA weekly report with ethanol production last week up to 1.096 million barrels/day which is just off the all-time high for any week and up 20% over the last three weeks. Strong profit margins have pushed e-plants to maximize production. Gas, distillate and crude oil stocks lower than expected which flipped the crude oil futures from lower to higher mid-morning yesterday. Soy processors also pushing the grind as oils continue to lead the way higher. Soybean oil 3.5% higher yesterday after Malaysian palm oil hit new all-time highs. U.S. crude palm oil and canola futures also into new highs during the day yesterday. These continue to support the entire soy complex as soybeans have bounced $.61 higher since last week’s report day low and meal up $19/T. Speaking of new highs, MPLS spring wheat into new contract highs again yesterday, the seventh time so far this month, bringing both KC and Chicago wheat up to test nearby resistance levels.
Grains backing off overnight, trading mixed but all finishing lower except a couple MPLS wheat contracts. Corn finished 3 lower, soybeans 9 to 10 lower, KC wheat and Chicago wheat 6 to 9 lower.
Weekly export sales reported this morning were friendly with soybeans above the top end of the range expected, corn near the top end and wheat in the middle of the range. Soybean net sales totaled 105.8 MBU, half of that sold to China and/or unknown destinations. Year to date sales now at 1.075 BBU which is over half of the total export estimate but sales last year at this time totaled 1.666 BBU. Corn net sales at 50.1 MBU. The top three buyers were unknown destinations, Mexico and Japan. Year to date sales now at 1.138 BBU, 45% of the total estimate, and still ahead of last year. Wheat sales only 13.3 MBU, down 36% from the week previous. The top three buyers were Nigeria, Japan and Colombia. Year to date sales now at 453.3 MBU, 52% of the total export estimate and still behind a year ago.
USDA announced a daily sale this morning, this first for the week, with 130,000 MT or 5.1 MBU of corn sold to Mexico. This coming after yesterday’s meeting between USDA Ag Secretary Vilsack and Mexico’s Ag Ministry in which he stated that his county will not limit GMO corn imports. Just last year Mexico’s president signed an executive order that would ban GMO corn consumption for humans.
Scattered rains in the WCB and the Great Lakes yesterday with more for the Corn Belt heading into the weekend and early next week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps across the majority of the country, below normal on the West Coast, with above normal moisture now across most of the U.S. with below normal only in the Southwest.
December corn still holding the long term lower trend with nearby support at $5.28 and resistance at $5.48. November soybeans also holding the lower trend with new 6-month lows last week at $11.84 ½ and resistance being tested now at $12.50. December KC wheat holding a higher trend since early July with support at $7.40 and the contract high at $7.69. December Chicago wheat also a long term higher trend with support around $7.30, resistance at $7.60 and the contract high at $7.86 ½. December MPLS wheat another new contract high overnight at $9.96 ¾ and support at $9.30. The next upside target is $10.35, the spot high from July 2012. December Soybean Meal bouncing off the new 12-month low last week at $309.3 with resistance at $330 then $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700