Monthly Archives: September 2018

Date: September 26th, 2018 Cattle futures moved very little yesterday with less than $1 trading range in both fats and feeders and finishing mildly higher for the day. Lean hogs on the other hand continued to push higher with the front month October gapping higher on the open, finishing triple digits higher for the day and breaking through the $62 resistance area from this past June. The only confirmed cash feedlot trade so far this week is in the North at $173 to $175 on a dressed basis and $110.50 live which is in essence steady with last week. Fed cattle exchange online auction later today with only 424 head consigned compared to last week’s 528 head of which none sold. Oklahoma National Stockyards -…

Date: September 25th, 2018 Cattle futures continued under pressure to start this week as lean hog futures were mostly higher. The bearish cattle on feed report along with corn futures higher provided the initial pressure which could not be reversed out of. Beef prices were lower in the morning trade but bounced back to close higher on light volume. Cold Storage Report for the end of August was overall bearish. Total red meat supplies up 4% from both last month and last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 4% from the previous month and up 6% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 6% from the previous month and up 1% from last year. Total frozen poultry supplies were up 5%…

Big week for the meat complex from the standpoint of an overdose of news flow. Hurricane Florence and the flooding aftermath crippled the pork and poultry industry along the East Coast. Poultry loss numbers are all over the board, but I think it’s safe to say the losses were somewhere between 2-4 mln chickens and turkeys. Hog losses were minimal, but slaughter and processing plants that were shut down ahead of the storm still aren’t full online yet. The hog kills two weeks ago were down sharply from normal levels. Last week’s kill looked to me like maybe 1/3 to ½ the capacity that was lost was back up. We’ll find out from today’s slaughter total if there’s anything else online yet. African Swine Fever…

Date: September 19th, 2018 Livestock futures were mixed yesterday with cattle under pressure all day while lean hogs scored triple digit gains. Hogs gapped higher at the open yesterday with the nearby contract touching the $3 limit at one point. Cash prices were higher along with pork while cleanup is ongoing in the North Carolina. China’s sow herd is reportedly down 4.8% in August compared to a year ago and down 1.1% from last month. Total hog herd is down 2.4% from a year ago. Salebarns are reporting decent volume so far this week with feeders and calves mostly higher than last week, some reports stating $8 to $9 higher. There have been a few hundred fat cattle trade this week in NE at $111.50…

After a stellar, bullish close to last week’s cattle complex futures trade, it was a surprisingly dull session yesterday. The daily range from high to low was still more than $1 in most contract months in the live and feeder markets, but the closes were mixed and very quiet on the net changes versus Friday’s finish. Chart technicals across the cattle look really, really bullish with a lot of new highs last week and a few months pushing lightly into new highs again yesterday at the peak. Those technical bullish signs are coming in the face of fundamentals that are pointed the opposite direction though, given total meat supplies across the board. If funds and managed money want to keep hitting the buy button and…

Date: September 17th, 2018 Only light volume to report heading into Friday afternoon for cash feedlot trade. Futures surged higher though, October finishing limit higher for the day, which should result in higher cash trade. NE saw active trade at $108 to $110 live and $172 to $175 dressed which is already steady to $2 higher than the week previous. Trade was confirmed late Friday in the South as high as $112 live. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – W/E 09/14/2018 RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total This Week 184,400 60,400 44,800 289,600 Last Week 122,200 47,800 57,200 227,200 Last Year 193,100 58,100 20,800 272,000 Compared to last week, calves and yearlings sold fully steady to 5.00 higher with many major markets compared to two…

Grain and oilseed trade got some shocker numbers in the reports and market action was sharply lower in corn, actively lower in wheat and higher in beans. The biggest report focus was corn and soybean yield and production totals. Corn yield was a whopping, record bearish 181.3 bu/ac, yet ending stocks were still bullish at 1.774 bln. Soybean yield was a monster as well at 52.8 bu/ac with carryout badly bearish at 845 mln. New crop world ending stocks totals were all slightly larger than the pre-report estimates. Old crop world numbers were higher than the guesses in corn and wheat and a little lower in beans. Big picture round numbers have world wheat ending stocks down 13 mmt’s from a year ago, world soybean…

Lean hog futures had a fairly aggressive setback yesterday and the cattle complex was lower as well, but only mildly. Friday’s sharp jump in cattle and Monday’s early follow through broke some key technical barriers that are still in play on the bullish side. Cash last week moving $1 higher helped the cause as well. There’s a small bearish dilemma brewing with the product market heading south, but packer margins are still strongly positive, so I’m not overly concerned about that just yet. The other supporting factor to the meat complex is cash hog values finally finding strong support and they have shot up more than $10/cwt since the start of the month. The spread between cattle prices and hog prices, especially in the product…

Date: September 10th, 2018 Packers purchased light volume throughout the week at $107 live and $170 dressed yet had to push prices higher on Friday. Cash cattle trade firmed throughout the day to $108 live for the majority of the trade in the South, which is $1 higher than the week previous. Hog futures finished the week mixed but higher overall for the week. Cash prices spiked higher on Friday. China reported several more African swine fever outbreaks bringing the total number since early August up to thirteen in six different provinces. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – W/E 08/31/2018 RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total This Week 122,200 47,800 57,200 227,200 Last Week 148,700 49,600 10,600 208,900 Last Year 126,500 40,200 11,600 178,300 Compared…